Reduction of gas demand through changes in heating behaviour in households: Novel insights from modelling and empirical evidence

The geopolitical situation and the energy crisis caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine have led to proposals for immediate reduction in energy consumption within the European Union (EU). The REPowerEU Plan of the European Commission proposes behavioural changes as short-term measures to rapidly reduce the EU's dependence on Russian gas and oil. This paper investigates the energy saving potential resulting from changes in household heating behaviour. Through a comparison of modelling results with results of the analysis of empirical data collected in a survey of households in four EU Member States (Germany, the Netherlands, Greece, and Poland), the paper examines the adequacy of the short-term measures proposed by the EU and the instruments needed to leverage such measures and increase their potential impact. Although the reported changes in heating behaviour lead to a 2.0 % to 3.5 % reduction in residential gas demand in the countries studied, the study recognises that the EU targets for reducing the gas demand will not be met under current regulatory conditions, and considers the energy savings observed in this paper and in the literature as a short-term response to unexpected circumstances. The paper proposes a policy package to transform these responses into the long-term behavioural changes needed to achieve climate targets. Promoting uptake of household technical infrastructure, providing financial support and implementing information campaigns are suggested as effective approaches to achieving savings targets.