A methodology for bottom-up modelling of energy transitions in the industry sector: The FORECAST model

Bottom-up energy models can support strategic decision-making and can help to manage an efficient transition to a low-carbon energy system. The manufacturing industry accounted for about 19% of EU-wide greenhouse gas emissions in 2014, which underlines the importance of this sector for model-based decarbonisation assessments. This paper describes the methodology of the FORECAST model. FORECAST is a bottom-up simulation model used to develop long-term scenarios for the future energy demand of industry, services and household sectors. In this study, we discuss the model in the light of developing transition scenarios for the decarbonisation of the industry sector. In doing so, we focus on the model's structure and simulation algorithms, and provide illustrative results. The FORECAST model includes a broad range of mitigation options combined with a high level of technological detail. Technology diffusion and stock turnover are explicitly considered to allow insights into transition pathways. The model further includes different policy levers to improve its applicability as a policy support tool. The model is designed to cover the entire industry sector from major energy-intensive processes to the numerous less energy-intensive sub-sectors and applications. The concluding discussion suggests future research directions to improve the contribution industry sector models can make to supporting the industrial energy transition.