Scenarios for renewable energy deployment in North African countries and electricity exchange with Europe - a model-based analysis for 2050

Deployment of renewable energy technologies in North Africa has large potentials for both, the coverage of the growing local electricity demand and for export of electricity to neighboring regions such as Europe. The presented research analyzes four scenarios with high shares of renewable energies in electricity generation (regional average 83-98%) in five North African countries and evaluates the opportunities and technical challenges for exchange of electricity within the region and with Europe. It was found that extensive grid reinforcements would be required to realize the presented scenarios. With respect to inner-regional transmission capacities in North Africa, results show that, depending on the scenario, about 90 % of the present grid would have to be expanded substantially in order to handle the expected transmission volumes in 2050.