Fraunhofer-Institut für System- und Innovationsforschung ISI

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Energy saving cost curves as a tool for policy development - case study of the German building stock

2016 , Kranzl, Lukas , Anagnostopoulos, Filippos , Müller, Andreas , Staniaszek, Dan , Steinbach, Jan , Toleikyte, Agne

The building sector within the EU accounts for about 40% of final energy use and one-third of greenhouse gas emissions. Buildings therefore should play an important role in meeting the EU climate targets. Using the example of Germany, the largest economy of the EU, this paper sets out the methodology for appraising the contribution that comprehensive building renovations, comprising both fabric insulation and heating system upgrades, can make towards decreasing energy use. A dynamic bottom-up simulation model, the Invert/EE-Lab model, evaluates the effects of three scenarios of economic and regulatory incentives for three different renovation packages oriented towards the standards defined by the German building code (EnEv) as well as the support programmes of the KfW development bank. Results are presented visually through Energy Saving Cost Curves which communicate the monetary costs (or savings) and the energy savings for 16 building categories that represent the entirety of the German building stock. The Energy Saving Cost Curves developed in this paper represent the investors' perspective to 2030. Under the Business As Usual scenario, the total cost effective energy savings potential amounts to 60 TWh/a, avoids 1.1 bne/a in energy costs, and comprises most of the non-residential building categories and the oldest residential buildings built before 1948. Increasing the level of subsidy in the High Subsidy scenario results in an almost doubling of cost-effective savings to 118 TWh/a while increasing energy cost savings to 1.9 bne/a. Energy Saving Cost Curves provide a means to compare the impact of different policy options from the perspective of the investor for different building categories, and can thereby feed directly into the design of renovation strategies -whether at national, regional or city level- under a wide variety of conditions and taking into consideration economic parameters ranging from subsidies and energy prices, to transaction costs, learning curves and discount rates.

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Assessing the impact of the EU Ecodesign Directive on a member state level

2015 , Fleiter, Tobias , Braungardt, Sibylle , Schaib, Tariq , Schlomann, Barbara , Eichhammer, Wolfgang , Elsland, Rainer , Kranzl, Lukas , Jakob, Martin

The Ecodesign Directive (EDD) is a key instrument of the EU's energy policy framework and is expected to have a substantial impact on energy efficiency and energy demand in the European economy. We have conducted a model-based ex-ante assessment of the energy savings induced by the EDD until 2020 and 2030 for the sectors industry, tertiary and households. We first screened the regulations and lots (i.e. product-groups) to finally quantify 16 individual lots in detail. We use bottom-up models that have a very high level of technological detail, which allows simulating the EDD on the level of individual member states and lots (e.g. in the industrial sector, we simulate the electricity demand for electric motors in each member state).We calculate two scenarios: a baseline scenario without the EDD and a scenario with the current EDD implementation. The scenario analysis is preceded by an assessment of implementing measures (mostly regulations) for all lots.. We use information from the regulations and further calibrate the models to data from preparatory studies. The macro-economic framework data is calibrated to the most recent official EU projections from 2013.The results show a strong impact from the EDD. The potential savings from the evaluated lots amounts to about 225 TWh/a of electricity (and about 30 TWh of other fuels) by 2030, which equals roughly 8 % of current EU28 electricity demand. Furthermore, the results allow comparison of the impact by country, lot and year. The major share of the savings results from appliances and lighting in the residential sector, while the importance of individual sectors varies substantially among countries. The calculations only consider implemented regulations for 16 lots. Including additional lots for where regulations are not yet in force, would considerably increase the potential savings - particularly in the industrial sector where only a few regulations are implemented so far. On the other hand, we did assume full compliance and excluded rebound effects. Both, non-compliance and rebound effects could diminish the calculated saving potential.

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Modeling the impact of solar thermal support policies

2010 , Kranzl, Lukas , Müller, Andreas , Hummel, Marcus , Bürger, Veit , Beurskens, Luuk , Connor, Peter M. , Giakoumi, Argyro , Iatridis, Minas , Steinbach, Jan , Xie, Lei

The 2020 RES-targets of the EU until 2020 require substantial growth of RES-technologies and sectors. Solar thermal energy can provide an increasing share of this amount, in particular looking on the period beyond 2020. However, this will need corresponding ambitious policy instruments and support. This paper provides scenarios for solar thermal energy in selected European countries (AT, GR, LT, NL, PL, UK) up to 2030. A techno-economic bottom-up model is applied for simulating the impact of different policy instruments (and design options of these instruments). In particular, the focus is on the following policy instruments: economic incentives and RES-Heat obligations. The results are based on a comparison of these different scenarios and provide insight into barriers, challenges and opportunities for solar thermal energy in the selected regions. The paper ends with discussions regarding the role of the solar thermal targets in NREAPs and provides conclusions for the design of solar thermal support instruments. The paper is based on the work done within the IEE project RES-H Policy (www.res-h-policy.eu).

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Evaluating the current EU energy efficiency policy framework and its impact until 2020 and 2030 (1-473-15) (1-473-15)

2015 , Schlomann, Barbara , Eichhammer, Wolfgang , Krail, Michael , Reuter, Matthias , Braungardt, Sibylle , Fleiter, Tobias , Kranzl, Lukas

The current state of achieving the 20% energy saving target by 2020 as well as the realization of the EU 2030 target adopted in October rank very high on the EU energy policy agenda. Scenario-based analysis using bottom-up simulation models provides information on the impact of implemented policies as well as future saving potentials. Our analysis has two main objectives: (i) to assess the contribution of implemented policies towards achieving the 2020 energy efficiency target of 20%; (ii) to assess energy efficiency potentials beyond implemented policies until 2020 and 2030. For both objectives, we apply a bottom-up modelling approach using detailed sector models covering residential and non-residential buildings, industry, residential and tertiary appliances as well as transport. In order to assess the different policy options and saving potentials, we define several scenarios including a baseline (with and without early action and with planned measures), a scenario with additional measures not yet implemented and three scenarios representing saving potentials (from very cost-effective to ""near economic""). Our results show that the scenario including early action misses the 20% energy saving target by 2020 by about 2.3%. Including additional measures (and intensifying existing measures) it is possible to reach the 20% target. Regarding the new 2030 targets of the EU, our modelling approach shows that primary energy consumption can be reduced by 41% compared to the PRIMES 2007 baseline by fully exploiting the economic energy savings potentials. This is considerably more than the reduction by 27% as decided by the European Council. The resulting decrease of GHG emissions amounts to more than 45% in this scenario (assuming a share of renewable of 27%). The detailed modelling of policies and technologies allows a sector-specific analysis of the contribution of individual policy instruments and technologies towards the above mentioned targets. Only such detailed models allow simulating the different types of energy-efficiency policies (e.g. standards, taxes, ETS, audits, information programs, subsidies).

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Short term policy strategies and long term targets: The case of the German building sector

2014 , Kranzl, Lukas , Bürger, Veit , Henning, Hans-Martin , Hummel, Marcus , Kockat, Judit , Müller, Andreas , Palzer, Andreas , Steinbach, Jan

The German government set targets for the reduction of heating energy demand in buildings (-20% of space heating energy need 2008-2020) as well as for the share of renewables in the overall heatsector (14% by 2020). In addition, long-term visions up to 2050 exist. The research questions of this paper are: (1) How can different policies affect space heating and hot water energy demand in Germany by 2020? (2) To which extent are these short-term policy interventions consistent with longterm targets? We use Invert/EE-Lab for modelling the German residential and non-residential building sector. The model takes into account barriers and investment decision patterns for the uptake of renovation measures and the investment in different types of heating, hot water and cooling technologies. More than 60 short-term scenarios until 2020 are simulated with different policy design options and energy price levels. They serve as a starting point for simulating a smaller number of scenarios until 2050. The short-term scenarios show that with ambitious policy design final energy demand in the German building sector for heating, hot water and cooling could decrease by about 16% from 2008 until 2020 (i.e. below 680 TWh in 2020 compared to 808 TWh in 2008), GHG emissions could decrease by more than 50% and the renewable share could more than double. Though, this may seem promising, the long-term scenarios indicate that most of the short-term scenarios do not prepare the ground for really ambitious energy efficiency and climate mitigation targets of the building sector in 2050.

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What drives the impact of future support policies for energy efficiency in buildings?

2015 , Kranzl, Lukas , Müller, Andreas , Toleikyte, Agne , Kockat, Judit , Steinbach, Jan

Policy makers face the challenge to design and test support policies for nearly zero energy buildings (nZEB) - and in general energy efficiency policies - in a real-life laboratory. Model based scenarios are expected to reduce the uncertainties. However, rather than trying to exactly predict the future or the impact of a certain instrument, the core objective is to understand the drivers affecting the impact of policies on future energy demand in buildings. We will draw nearer to this objective by a comparative analysis of policy scenarios in 9 EU Member States (MSs) and EU-28 as a whole. Thus, the key research questions of this paper are: (1) What impact on energy demand, CO2-emissions and public costs do various policies trigger in scenarios for EU MSs and the EU-28? (2) What drives the differences between the scenarios in various countries and policy settings? (3) How do the policies compare in terms of their consistency with long-term targets of energy savings and CO2-reductions? We build this research on three policy sets which were developed in the IEE project ENTRANZE in a discussion process with policy makers: one policy set reflecting current policy instruments and two others with more innovative and ambitious approaches. The potential effect of these policy sets was analysed with the bottom-up model Invert/EE-Lab. The model is based on a disaggregated description of the building stock, and its building and HVAC components. The investment decision for various retrofit measures and HVAC systems is modelled under consideration of the characteristics of various country specific agent groups (e.g. low-income households, elderly people, ownership types etc). The results show a wide range of energy savings for space heating, hot water, cooling and lighting of less than 10% to more than 30% from 2008-2030. Remarkably, the highest energy savings were not achieved in those scenarios and countries with the highest public expenses. It turns out that at least a minimum level of regulatory measures increasing ""nZEB renovation"" activities and renewable heating (RES-H) systems should be added to economic incentives and strong supply - side measures

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Scenario based evaluation of policies addressing the German heating and cooling sector: A bottom-up modeling approach integrating buildings, industry and district heating

2013 , Steinbach, Jan , Kranzl, Lukas , Müller, Andreas , Hummel, Marcus , Kockat, Judit , Herbst, Andrea , Toro, Felipe , Reitze, Felix , Jochem, Eberhard , Fette, Max , Schulz, Wolfgang , Bürger, Veit

Energy demand for heating and cooling represents the largest energy use sector in Germany. Measures to enhance energy efficiency of buildings and industry processes are often considered as a cost-effective opportunity to reduce energy demand and carbon dioxide emissions. Nevertheless, realized improvements in energy efficiency have failed to live up to expectations in the past few years considering its attributed potential; raising the question if the targets regarding energy efficiency and renewable heating and cooling set by the German government are still feasible. This paper presents a variety of scenarios for the German heating and cooling sector up to 2020 using an exploratory modeling approach. Each scenario considers a certain set of different policy instruments which are analyzed by integrating four different techno-economic bottom-up sector models - INVERT/EE-Lab, Forecast-ProcIndustry, ProcServ and District heating/CHP model. The latter considers different building and settlement types to calculate the potential of district heating and CHP technologies subject to energy load of industry processes and buildings. The dynamic simulation model INVERT/EE-Lab is applied to simulate investment decisions in energy efficiency measures and evaluate different support schemes in the building sector. Forecast-ProcIndustry and ProcServ describes the energy demand of process heating and cooling in industry and the service sector, respectively.

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