Evaluating the current EU energy efficiency policy framework and its impact until 2020 and 2030 (1-473-15) (1-473-15)

The current state of achieving the 20% energy saving target by 2020 as well as the realization of the EU 2030 target adopted in October rank very high on the EU energy policy agenda. Scenario-based analysis using bottom-up simulation models provides information on the impact of implemented policies as well as future saving potentials. Our analysis has two main objectives: (i) to assess the contribution of implemented policies towards achieving the 2020 energy efficiency target of 20%; (ii) to assess energy efficiency potentials beyond implemented policies until 2020 and 2030. For both objectives, we apply a bottom-up modelling approach using detailed sector models covering residential and non-residential buildings, industry, residential and tertiary appliances as well as transport. In order to assess the different policy options and saving potentials, we define several scenarios including a baseline (with and without early action and with planned measures), a scenario with additional measures not yet implemented and three scenarios representing saving potentials (from very cost-effective to ""near economic""). Our results show that the scenario including early action misses the 20% energy saving target by 2020 by about 2.3%. Including additional measures (and intensifying existing measures) it is possible to reach the 20% target. Regarding the new 2030 targets of the EU, our modelling approach shows that primary energy consumption can be reduced by 41% compared to the PRIMES 2007 baseline by fully exploiting the economic energy savings potentials. This is considerably more than the reduction by 27% as decided by the European Council. The resulting decrease of GHG emissions amounts to more than 45% in this scenario (assuming a share of renewable of 27%). The detailed modelling of policies and technologies allows a sector-specific analysis of the contribution of individual policy instruments and technologies towards the above mentioned targets. Only such detailed models allow simulating the different types of energy-efficiency policies (e.g. standards, taxes, ETS, audits, information programs, subsidies).