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Fraunhofer-Institut für System- und Innovationsforschung ISI
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PublicationFuture regional distribution of electric vehicles in Germany( 2020)Electrification as an option to decarbonize road transport leads to an increasing number of electric vehicles in Germany. However, the stock of electric vehicles is not evenly distributed regionally. The local distribution of electric vehicles is particularly important from an energy system perspective in order to be able to estimate future grid loads. Here, we use multiple linear regression to distribute a German-wide market diffusion of electric vehicles to 401 NUTS3-areas in Germany. Current regional vehicle stocks and regional development data (e.g. population, income, and spatial structure) are used as independent variables. We combine these variables with forecasts for spatial development and obtain a regionalized electric vehicle market diffusion for Germany. First results suggest a concentration of BEV and PHEV stocks in southwestern Germany and in large cities in the medium-term future.
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PublicationDo plug-in electric vehicles cause a change in travel behavior?( 2017)
;Heilig, Michael ;Mallig, Nicolai ;Briem, Lars ;Kagerbauer, MartinVortisch, PeterThe market diffusion of plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) depends, besides many other factors, on how suitable these cars are for people's every day travel behavior. We combine the outcome of two model based approaches to derive how people's travel behavior might change if they use PEVs. The first model ALADIN determines the PEV owners, who are integrated within the second model, the microscopic travel demand simulation mobiTopp, in order to analyze the changes in travel behavior. The results show that PEVs in today's configuration are in many cases not suitable for daily mobility patterns and the mode has to be changed for some trips instead. -
PublicationPotenziale und Finanzierungsbedarf von Hybrid-Oberleitungs-LKW( 2017)Kühn, André
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PublicationCan models predict electric vehicle users?( 2017)
;Kagerbauer, MartinHeilig, MichaelSeveral attempts have been made in the literature to characterise the first users of electric vehicles. The approaches span from model-based assessments over techno-economical identification to survey. Here we compare EV user characterisations for Germany from several sources, including a model-based and a comprehensive EV user survey. Our results show already empirical sources can differ substantially but that model-based findings have to be analysed with care but can yield useful insights. -
PublicationWhat drives the market for plug-in electric vehicles?( 2017)
;Stephens, Thomas S. ;Lin, Zhenhong ;Liu, ChangzhengBrokate, JensMarket diffusion of plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) is an often-addressed research topic, yet PEV market diffusion models differ in approaches, factors included and results. Here, we compare 40 market diffusion models for PEVs in scope, approach and findings to point out similarities or differences and make recommendations vor futue research in this area. We find that important input factors for the US are purchase price and operating cost, while for Germany energy prices and charging infrastructure are mentioned more often. Furthermore, larger sales shares of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles than battery electric vehicles are often found in the short term results while the picture is not so clear for the medium- to long-term. Future models should include specific PEV features like limited range of battery electric vehicles or access to charging infrastructure which are currently not covered by many models. Also, the integration of current policy regulations and, if possible, indirect policy incentives would enhance research in this field. -
PublicationWhat is the best alternative drive train for heavy road transport?( 2017)Kühn, AndréAmbitious long-term green house gas (GHG) emission targets require decarbonisation of the transport sector. For road transport, passenger cars with internal combustion engines need to be replaced by electric vehicles. However, despite its growing share of transport's CO2 emissions, no clear solution presents itself for CO2 emission reduction on heavy road transport. Potential CO2 free options include direct electrification of trucks via batteries, over-head power lines, hydrogen and other power-to-X fuels from renewable electricity. Here, we compare these options with respect to their degree of technological readiness, costs and CO2 reduction potentials. We use cost assumptions and cost reduction potentials from available literature sources and combine them with today's heavy truck usage data for Germany in 2030. Our results show that the high efficiency in direct usage of electricity from overhead cables implies less installation of additional renewable power compared to fuel cell electric vehicles. Both could be good long-term solutions but require a massive initial infrastructure investment.
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PublicationWhat does the future vehicle fleet look like? A comparison of PEV market diffusion models( 2016)
;Stephens, Tom ;Lin, ZhenhongLiu, Changzheng -