Exploring the impacts of demand scenarios, weather variability and mitigation of emissions on Morocco’s hydrogen market and renewable transition pathways

The global demand for green hydrogen and its derivatives is growing rapidly as a cornerstone for decarbonizing hard-to-abate sectors. Morocco, endowed with abundant solar and wind resources, ambitions to capture up to 4% of the global PtX market by 2030, positioning itself as a strategic partner for Europe’s energy transition. Yet, uncertainty persists regarding European demand trajectories, infrastructure readiness, and investment risks. This study evaluates Morocco’s hydrogen transition through 2035 using a sector-coupled capacity expansion model. We compare industry reallocation and hydrogen export-oriented scenarios, assessing their impacts under interannual weather variability and financial sensitivities. Both scenarios require a tripling of current renewable and electrolyzer capacities, with hydrogen demand reaching approximately up to 38 TWh by 2035. Lower financing costs (WACC) have a greater effect on system costs and competitiveness than stricter CO2 constraints or weather variability. The trade-off between domestic energy security and export competitiveness is pronounced, but both pathways are technically feasible and aligned with. These findings provide evidence-based guidance for policymakers to balance Morocco’s domestic and export ambitions in the evolving hydrogen market.