The impact of EU net-zero industry strategies on the energy system and cross-border hydrogen infrastructure

The decarbonisation of industry, which is a significant contributor to greenhouse gas emissions, is closely linked to the energy system and its transformation. This study quantifies the impacts of industrial decarbonisation on the European energy system, considering uncertainties in electricity and hydrogen demand and constraints on renewable energy sources (RES) deployment and cross-border infrastructure expansion. Using a scenario-based approach, we link the detailed bottom-up model FORECAST-Industry with the multi-energy system model METIS-3 to analyse six scenarios that explore variations in hydrogen and electrification adoption and supply-side constraints. By 2050, electrification is projected to be the cornerstone of industrial decarbonisation in the EU27+UK, with demand reaching 1528-1854 TWh compared with 976 TWh in 2020, while hydrogen demand ranges between 416 and 1785 TWh by 2050, concentrated in energy-intensive sectors. Meeting the energy demand of all sectors will require unprecedented expansion of RES, with annual capacity additions of 56-73 GW for solar and 37-55 GW for wind. Developing a pan-European hydrogen network is a robust element that reduces costs even under scenarios with constrained RES deployment or low industrial hydrogen demand. From a techno-economic perspective, optimal deployment of RES potentials, supported by robust hydrogen infrastructure, could enable the EU to meet its own hydrogen demand domestically at a competitive marginal system cost of 55-64 €/MWh. Less ambitious RES deployment or cross-border capacity limitations lead to a 19.5 % increase in the costs of hydrogen and a greater reliance on hydrogen imports, covering up to 23 % of demand. By providing high sectoral and process-level detail, the study captures a wide range of potential hydrogen uses and the corresponding need for hydrogen infrastructure.