Assessing energy use, carbon emissions and its driving factors for the pulp and paper industry in China

As one of the main energy sources in China's pulp and paper industry (CPPI), biomass fuel is worth attention for its carbon-neutral characteristic. This article assessed the energy use and carbon emissions of CPPI, with an emphasis on biomass fuel use. The driving factors of carbon emissions were also explored with the Logarithmic Mean Divisa Index (LMDI) method. During the investigated period (2005–2021), total final energy use varied from 1050 to 1624 PJ, of which biomass fuels account for 15.9–25.5%. Energy intensity declined from 18.8 to 12.8 GJ/t. Although the energy mix is shifting toward less coal and more biomass and electricity use, coal still dominant the energy sources with a share of 68.4–47.2%. Total carbon emissions ranged from 129 to 184 Mt CO2, among which, 15.2–22.8% was attributed to biogenic emissions. The average annual growth rates of total energy use and carbon emissions were 2.5% and 2.1% over the studied period. However, the carbon intensity shows a downward trend except in the year of 2013 and 2018. The average annual decline rates of energy intensity and carbon intensity were 2.4% and 2.7–2.9%, respectively. The LMDI decomposition results demonstrated that the growth of paper production was the main factor driving carbon emissions, while energy intensity and the emission factor of electricity were the main counteracting factors. In addition, the energy structure changed from increasing to decreasing carbon emissions. Therefore, reducing energy intensity by energy efficiency improvement, changing the energy structure from fossil energy to biomass fuel, and applying more green electricity should be encouraged and implemented continuously to achieve the carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals for CPPI.