On the potential role of flexible Norwegian hydropower in managing challenging renewable energy variability events in Europe

Previous research has identified flexible Norwegian hydropower as one potential key resource for managing variations in wind and solar power in Northern Europe. There is, however, a need for further detailed examination of this potential role of Norwegian hydropower based on updated future scenarios and using the latest data and model tools available. We analyze potential power system impacts of expanding Norwegian hydropower flexibility and Norway-Europe transmission, considering renewable energy variability based on a simulation for the historical weather years 1991-2020. The simulations are performed using FanSi, a stochastic optimization model for analyzing large-scale power systems with significant shares of hydropower combined with high shares of wind/solar power. A year 2050 scenario for Europe from the integrated energy system model SCOPE SD is used as framework for our analysis with FanSi. Our results highlight how expanded hydropower and transmission can potentially reduce price spikes during periods of low wind/solar output, reduce wind/solar energy curtailment during periods of high wind/solar output; and reduce price differences between interconnected areas during periods of either low or high wind/solar output. We demonstrate that these effects are attributable to more dynamic operation and expanded operational ranges of hydropower and transmission in the simulations assuming expanded hydropower and transmission capacities. We acknowledge high fundamental uncertainty in modelling a future system for the year 2050.