Market entry scenarios for Air Taxis in 2030 derived from a scenario-based approach

Increasing urbanization, regulatory requirements, and new technologies will fundamentally change travel in the coming years. Global megatrends are driving societal changes and thus influencing the mobility of the future. Society is increasingly striving for greener, more efficient, and demand-driven transport. Innovative technologies have paved the way for new possibilities for the so-called Advanced Air Mobility (AAM). The ongoing transition to the third dimension represents a solution to capacity constraints and an attractive mobility alternative to ground transportation in urban and rural areas. However, it entails several economic, social, regulatory and particularly technological challenges that must be factored in for the market success of AAM.
Due to this highly dynamic and complex market environment, future-oriented tools are necessary to provide AAM stakeholders with a clear roadmap of potential pathways to thriving in the market and foreseeable obstacles and chances. Therefore, this paper presents four possible future scenarios of Germany’s Air Taxi market potential in 2030, derived using a systematic scenario technique.