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  4. Co-creating Canada's path to net-zero: a stakeholder-driven modelling analysis
 
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2023
Journal Article
Title

Co-creating Canada's path to net-zero: a stakeholder-driven modelling analysis

Abstract
Canada has pledged ambitious emission targets, aiming to achieve a reduction of at least 40–45% below 2005 levels by 2030 and net-zero emissions by 2050. Being amongst the major economies with high dependence on fossil fuels, however, this path is far from straightforward. This research employs NATEM, a TIMES-based regional energy system model for North America with explicit representation of Canada, as well as knowledge produced and shared by stakeholders during a targeted workshop dedicated to identifying decarbonisation bottlenecks, to compare the paths to net zero on the basis of whether stakeholder perceptions are considered or not. We find that the path to net-zero is technically feasible but critically entails the use of negative emissions technologies, like (bioenergy with) carbon capture and storage (CCS) and direct air capture, in addition to the large-scale deployment of a large range of mitigation options already available today. Based on the feedback received from the stakeholders, around both the use of CCS-based technologies and the potential of demand-side measures such as modal shifts in transportation and better urban planning, we impose a set of additional conditions and restrictions. We find that the co-created net-zero pathway is also technically feasible while relying less on technologies that may trigger bottlenecks prioritised by the stakeholders; notably, despite yielding a similar emissions trajectory, it entails significantly different sectoral and technological configurations to the non-co-created net-zero scenario, requiring an acceleration of near-term abatement measures, mainly through electrification and quicker rollout of renewable and other clean energy technologies.
Author(s)
Bailie, Alison
ESMIA Consultants, Montreal, Québec
Pied, Marie
ESMIA Consultants, Montreal, Québec
Vaillancourt, Kathleen
ESMIA Consultants, Montreal, Québec
Bahn, Olivier
GERAD and Department of Decision Sciences, HEC Montréal
Koasidis, Konstantinos
National Technical University of Athens, School of Electrical & Computer Engineering
Gambhir, Ajay
Imperial College London, Grantham Institute for Climate Change
Wachsmuth, Jakob  
Fraunhofer-Institut für System- und Innovationsforschung ISI  
Warnke, Philine  orcid-logo
Fraunhofer-Institut für System- und Innovationsforschung ISI  
McWilliams, Ben
BRUEGEL, Brussels
Doukas, Haris
National Technical University of Athens, School of Electrical & Computer Engineering
Nikas, Alexandros
National Technical University of Athens, School of Electrical & Computer Engineering
Journal
Renewable and sustainable energy transition  
Open Access
DOI
10.1016/j.rset.2023.100061
10.24406/publica-1771
File(s)
Download (2.73 MB)
Rights
CC BY-NC-ND 4.0: Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives
Language
English
Fraunhofer-Institut für System- und Innovationsforschung ISI  
Keyword(s)
  • Canada

  • Energy modelling

  • Stakeholder engagement

  • Co-creation

  • Net-zero

  • Climate policy

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