The risk of fluid-injection-induced fault reactivation in carbonate reservoirs: an investigation of a geothermal system in the Ruhr region (Germany)

In this study, we investigate the potential for fluid-injection-induced fault reactivation and induced seismicity risk during simultaneous injection-extraction operation in a theoretical geothermal doublet system in a carbonate reservoir in the Ruhr region. Using a coupled three-dimensional thermo-hydro-mechanical approach, we investigate the probability of injection-induced fault rupture. We perform a sensitivity study assuming variability of the fault and matrix permeability, injection/production flow rates, well placement options, rock thermal properties, and evaluate the influence of thermally induced stresses. The ruptured fault areas were calculated based on a Coulomb friction law and a notion that the shear slip is controlled by the ratio of shear to effective normal stresses acting on a pre-existing plane of weakness in the in situ stress field configuration. Ruptured fault areas in the intrinsically not critically-stressed environment, using location-specific empirical correlations, were used to compute local moment magnitudes of potential earthquakes. Based on this study, we conclude that, in the long-term, thermally-induced stresses play a dominant role during fault reactivation and greatly increase the likelihood for induced seismicity. We, therefore, propose that a minimum safe distance between an injection well and a fault should be based primarily on the radius of a thermal plume generated during the expected lifetime of a geothermal system. Results from this study provide valuable insights for the development of future deep geothermal systems in the Ruhr region and other geothermal reservoirs worldwide.