Potentials for district heating generation in a climate-neutral energy system

In order to achieve climate-neutrality in the building sector, renovation of the building stock and decarbonisation of heat supply is required. District heating is a possibility to supply buildings with heat from different sources. In the future, renewable sources and excess heat will provide carbon-neutral heat for the heating of buildings, replacing fossil-fuelled CHP plants. These sources are spatially limited. Here, we show that the technical potentials of geothermal energy, excess heat from industry and waste incineration as well as heat from rivers and waste water plants together with heat pumps can supply the annual district heating demand in Germany in 2050. Full load hours were used to reflect on seasonal availability of the sources. Technical parameters with uncertainties are varied and show a medium impact on the results on a possible supply of future district heating systems. Distance analysis is used to allocate the generation potentials to DH areas, based on maximum distances. The results were grouped in a cluster analysis, showing that six clusters are sufficient to describe the typologies of the district heating areas in terms of supply potentials. The results lead to the conclusion, that together with biomass, solar thermal and peak load boilers, the district heating demand can be supplied by carbon-neutral heat sources in the future.