Assessing the Causal Impact of COVID-19 Related Policies on Outbreak Dynamics: A Case Study in the US

Analyzing the causal impact of different policies in reducing the spread of COVID-19 is of critical importance. The main challenge here is the existence of unobserved confounders (e.g., vigilance of residents) which influence both the presence of policies and the spread of COVID-19. Besides, as the confounders may be time-varying, it is even more difficult to capture them. Fortunately, the increasing prevalence of web data from various online applications provides an important resource of time-varying observational data, and enhances the opportunity to capture the confounders from them, e.g., the vigilance of residents over time can be reflected by the popularity of Google searches about COVID-19 at different time periods. In this paper, we study the problem of assessing the causal effects of different COVID-19 related policies on the outbreak dynamics in different counties at any given time period. To this end, we integrate COVID-19 related observational data covering different U.S. counties over time, and then develop a neural network based causal effect estimation framework which learns the representations of time-varying (unobserved) confounders from the observational data. Experimental results indicate the effectiveness of our proposed framework in quantifying the causal impact of policies at different granularities, ranging from a category of policies with a certain goal to a specific policy type. Compared with baseline methods, our assessment of policies is more consistent with existing epidemiological studies of COVID-19. Besides, our assessment also provides insights for future policy-making.