Employment effects of sustainable transport - a scenario analysis for Germany using input-output modelling
Paper presented at the 7th European Conference on Corporate R&D and Innovation, CONCORDi 2019, Sevilla, Spain, 25th to 27th September 2019
The transformation towards sustainable transport is undoubtedly desirable from an ecological point of view. However, the economic perspective might yield a different assessment since the classic transport industries face structural changes. Besides these industries' economic prosperity in monetary terms, employment is an important welfare indicator. We apply input-output analysis, based on an extended input-output table, in order to study potential effects on employment of the transformation to sustainable transport in Germany. We compare future employment in two scenarios, one focusing on electrification and one focusing on multi-modal transportation in order to increase efficiency in transportation. The effects from modal shifts and increasing levels of automation range between +148,000 and -22,000 employed persons in full-time equivalents in 2035 compared to the status quo. Negative effects on employment mainly occur in the industries related to road-bound transport as aftermarket sales of vehicles or road freight transport. Industries that provide new mobility modes or infrastructure are in contrast positively affected. Even though the aggregate effects are comparatively low, the intra-industry as well as inter-industry shifts of employment demand likely require challenging adjustments.