Transition pathways to very low emissions shipping: The Matisse-Ship model

The MATISSE-SHIP simulation model of transitions has been developed to produce scenarios of technical change. An agent-based approach represents investment decisions of shipowners in cruise/Ro-Pax, container, dry and wet bulk and service vessels and technologies including wind assistance, wind hybrid and alternative fuel motors. Decision parameters include: capital and operational costs, GHG and SOx/NOx intensity and requirements for new bunker infrastructure. The attitudes of shipowners towards operational changes such as weather routing and autonomous ships are represented. The policy scenario extends the IMO NECAs, SECAs and 2020 Global sulphur cap to include effective policies for GHG emissions reductions implemented in a 2025-2040 time frame. Wind becomes more competitive than the low flashpoint fuels, which have higher fuel costs and higher GHG emissions, while power to liquid fuels from renewables may have a market in trades requiring very high power outputs if costs come down and bunker infrastructure is developed.