Impact of Uncertainties of Fundamental Models on Simulated Silicon Solar Cell Efficiencies

We determine the uncertainties on simulated efficiencies of silicon solar cells due to uncertainties of the fundamental physical models. For this end, we refit well-known models of numerical device simulations in order to acquire the uncertainties of the model parameters from the underlying measurement data. In a metamodeling and Monte Carlo simulation study, we then deduce how these propagate to the simulated solar cell efficiency. This is done for 150 mm thick 1 Ocm p-type standard and advanced silicon passivated emitter and rear cells (PERC) and for the limiting efficiency of silicon solar cells. We find uncertainties given by one standard deviation of 0.021% abs for usual PERC solar cells and 0.068% abs in case of the limiting efficiency. In a variance based sensitivity analysis, we find the uncertainties of the model parameters of the Auger recombination and the minority charge carrier mobility to contribute the most to the efficiency uncertainty. Besides these, we determine comparably large efficiency discrepancies of up to 0.6% abs for the two most prominent bandgap narrowing models, highlighting the necessity of further research on this topic.