Potential and costs for CO2 mitigation options for mineral oil refineries in EU-28 for 2050

In February 2011, the European Council reconfirmed the EU objective of mitigating greenhouse gas emissions by 80 - 95 % until 2050 compared to1990 to prevent drastic climate change. To reach that target, all sectors of the society are to put an effort into reducing their emission level. The European petroleum refining industry accounts for 3.4 % of GHG emissions in all industry activities and 7.2 % in the energy production and use sector. In the verified emissions table (VET) of the EU emissions trading system (EU ETS), we find 130 installations with total emissions of about 130 Mt in 2015 (European Commission 2015). This makes up for about one quarter of emissions accounted for by industrial activities in the EU ETS. At present, comprehensive analysis on energy demand, CO2 emissions, CO2 mitigation potential and costs using energy saving options have not been conducted at plant- and energy carrier-level for this important subsector. Here we present an approach to model the energy demand and CO2 emissions for the European refinery sector based on a plant level investigation. In a scenario analysis, we investigate capacity development and saving potential. Moreover, we show technical and economic potential of energy saving and CO2 mitigation in consideration of the energy saving options. The site-level calculation of energy demand and CO2emissions by energy carrier showed that there were roughly 49.0 million tonnes of oil equivalent consumed and about 130 million tonnes of CO2 emitted in 2015 by the EU refinery sector. From the scenario analysis, it was observed that energy demand and CO2 emission may decline by around 16 % by 2050 in the reference scenario, compared to the levels in 2015. In addition to the reference scenario, a policy scenario was developed using inputs based on a roadmap in European Commission (2011). Under the conditions of this scenario, 53 % of further CO2 mitigation could be achieved by 2050 compared to the reference scenario. The reviewed energy saving options can cause about 7-10 % of additional potential energy savings and CO2 mitigation of the refineries under different diffusion conditions. The methodology of site-specific estimation and projection of energy demand and emissions by refinery category seem plausible enough, given the good match of top-down and bottom-up values on an overall level. This paper is based on the Master's Thesis by Solbin Kim 'Potential and costs for CO2 mitigation options for refineries in EU-28 for 2050' published to University of Freiburg on 26th of May 2017.