Benchmarking the EU reference scenario 2016: An alternative bottom-up analysis of long-term energy consumption in Europe

Long-term scenarios of future energy demand are a major prerequisite when planning future energy systems and policy intervention. A prominent example of this is the recently published 'EU Reference Scenario 2016', which supports the European Commission's policy decision-making process via model-based energy system analysis until 2050 using the PRIMES energy system model. In terms of modelling energy demand, the EU Reference Scenario is analysed on sector level based on non-linear optimization routines and econometric functions. Due to the high relevance of the PRIMES results for the political discussion on a European level, we use the data published by the European Commission to compare and benchmark the projection of energy demand with the results of our own bottom-up analysis. The goal of this comparison is to critically reflect upon the results provided by the EU Reference Scenario on the one hand and to better understand the forces driving energy demand on the other hand. The applied modelling platform FORECAST aims to develop long-term energy demand scenarios of individual European countries. FORECAST is designed as a simulation-based bottom-up modelling approach, which considers the dynamics of technologies and socio-economic drivers on a high level of granularity. This includes vintage stock modelling for space heating equipment, household appliances and industrial steam systems, among others. To ensure a high level of comparability, we use similar framework assumptions (GDP, population, energy prices, etc.) as those provided in the EU Reference Scenario. The model results for final energy demand in the EU27 are compared by sector and country up to 2035, focusing on the residential, tertiary and industry sectors. The comparison focuses particularly on the role and contribution of bottom-up energy demand modelling and the driving forces of energy demand in the three sectors.