Uncertainty and error analysis of calculation procedures for PV self-consumption and its significance to investment decisions

Self-consumption of PV electricity has become a very important aspect for both, investment decisions as well as for calculating excessive or shortage energy supply. The objective of this paper is to identify uncertainties in the modeling process for calculating such PV self-consumption and quantify their impact. Results show: First, applying a realistic electric load profile was the most important factor for a correct calculation of the self-consumption rate. Second, altering PV simulation methods and parameters had only moderate influence on the rate compared to the alterations in consumption. Third, the timely resolution of data and hence, the simulation also had a significant effect on the outcome.