Assessing the impact of the EU Ecodesign Directive on a member state level

The Ecodesign Directive (EDD) is a key instrument of the EU's energy policy framework and is expected to have a substantial impact on energy efficiency and energy demand in the European economy. We have conducted a model-based ex-ante assessment of the energy savings induced by the EDD until 2020 and 2030 for the sectors industry, tertiary and households. We first screened the regulations and lots (i.e. product-groups) to finally quantify 16 individual lots in detail. We use bottom-up models that have a very high level of technological detail, which allows simulating the EDD on the level of individual member states and lots (e.g. in the industrial sector, we simulate the electricity demand for electric motors in each member state).We calculate two scenarios: a baseline scenario without the EDD and a scenario with the current EDD implementation. The scenario analysis is preceded by an assessment of implementing measures (mostly regulations) for all lots.. We use information from the regulations and further calibrate the models to data from preparatory studies. The macro-economic framework data is calibrated to the most recent official EU projections from 2013.The results show a strong impact from the EDD. The potential savings from the evaluated lots amounts to about 225 TWh/a of electricity (and about 30 TWh of other fuels) by 2030, which equals roughly 8 % of current EU28 electricity demand. Furthermore, the results allow comparison of the impact by country, lot and year. The major share of the savings results from appliances and lighting in the residential sector, while the importance of individual sectors varies substantially among countries. The calculations only consider implemented regulations for 16 lots. Including additional lots for where regulations are not yet in force, would considerably increase the potential savings - particularly in the industrial sector where only a few regulations are implemented so far. On the other hand, we did assume full compliance and excluded rebound effects. Both, non-compliance and rebound effects could diminish the calculated saving potential.