Preemptive network reinforcement at LV level considering uncertainty in prediction of PV penetration scenarios

Due to high renewable energy share in thedistribution networks, reverse power flows can be observed,leading to challenges for the distribution network operators(DNOs). In case of high photovoltaic (PV) penetration in lowvoltage (LV) level, the LV networks are susceptible to voltageviolations and overloading problems, especially at peak feed-inhours. This raises the necessity to undertake reinforcementmeasures by DNOs in order to maintain normal operationconditions. This paper analyzes the economic viability of thepreemptive implementation of network reinforcement underconsideration of the future PV penetration scenarios. To thisend, the investment costs of reinforcement with four exemplaryLV networks are calculated for 20 year scenarios of high PVpenetration. The costs are calculated utilizing preemptivestrategy and also a non-preemptive reference strategy. The costsaving potential with preemptive strategy consideringtheoretical perfect prediction of future scenarios as well as withinaccurate prediction is evaluated. The results show that thepreemptive reinforcement has high potential for cost saving inthe case of accurate prediction. Nevertheless, the cost savingdrops when the accuracy decreases, hence it can be even higherthan the reference strategy if the prediction certainty is too low.