MRI-based radiomic feature analysis of end-stage liver disease for severity stratification

Purpose We aimed to develop a predictive model of disease severity for cirrhosis using MRI-derived radiomic features of the liver and spleen and compared it to the existing disease severity metrics of MELD score and clinical decompensation. The MELD score is compiled solely by blood parameters, and so far, it was not investigated if extracted image-based features have the potential to reflect severity to potentially complement the calculated score. Methods This was a retrospective study of eligible patients with cirrhosis (n=90) who underwent a contrast-enhanced MR screening protocol for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) screening at a tertiary academic center from 2015 to 2018. Radiomic feature analyses were used to train four prediction models for assessing the patient's condition at time of scan: MELD score, MELD score > 9 (median score of the cohort), MELD score > 15 (the inflection between the risk and benefit of transplant), and clinical decompensation. Liver and spleen segmentations were used for feature extraction, followed by cross-validated random forest classification. Results Radiomic features of the liver and spleen were most predictive of clinical decompensation (AUC 0.84), which the MELD score could predict with an AUC of 0.78. Using liver or spleen features alone had slightly lower discrimination ability (AUC of 0.82 for liver and AUC of 0.78 for spleen features only), although this was not statistically significant on our cohort. When radiomic prediction models were trained to predict continuous MELD scores, there was poor correlation. When stratifying risk by splitting our cohort at the median MELD 9 or at MELD 15, our models achieved AUCs of 0.78 or 0.66, respectively. Conclusions We demonstrated that MRI-based radiomic features of the liver and spleen have the potential to predict the severity of liver cirrhosis, using decompensation or MELD status as imperfect surrogate measures for disease severity.