Zero carbon propulsion in shipping - scenarios for the development of hydrogen and wind technologies with the MATISSE-SHIP model
This paper introduces the MATISSE-SHIP model for illustrative long term scenarios of technical change in shipping. It applies current theory for sustainable innovation - 'transition theory' - and uses an agent-based modelling (ABM) approach that explicitly represents a range of decision makers with different decision criteria. It models investment decisions for new ships, concentrating on the choice of power train and generates time paths of shares of a range of propulsion technologies. Two scenarios were generated to illustrate pathways under which hydrogen achieves a major market in shipping by 2050: 1) If current SOx /NOx legislation does not lead to the large scale adoption of LNG and there is an expectation of strengthened climate change policy in the medium term, wind/H2 combined power systems take off, as they can demonstrate cost savings with GHG emissions reductions. The need for high power applications may lead to the uptake of biofuels as they can provide significant reductions in GHG emissions, while not requiring new bunker infrastructure or changes in operating patterns. 2) If, in addition to these developments, there is acceptance of changes in operations towards lower speeds in container shipping and biofuels remain limited in their adoption (e.g. due to limited supply and high fuel costs), combined wind/H2 propulsion systems could be the main alternative to 2050. High power installations are then covered by fossil fuels to 2050, with Power to Gas/Liquid technologies being developed in the longer term.