Quantifying disturbance risks on the process time for a robust, synchronized individual production

Due to high product variability, determining the risk of a disturbance for a production-process chain requires frequent as well as deliberate determination. If a disturbance becomes effective, it will have a tremendous negative effect on the adherence to delivery dates. This applies also to the synchronized individual production (SIP) principle. Accordingly, the principle lacks robustness in scientific as well as in industrial application. For this reason, this paper proposes an approach to quantify disturbance risks that lead to uncertain process times that prevent a robust SIP. The quantification methodology consists of a system definition, risk identification, and risk quantification. The assessment includes extending the risk matrix, adjusting the Failure Mode and Effects Analysis, plus determining general influence possibilities for each risk type. The proposed approach enables production planners to consider time uncertainty in form of a risk figure when determining nominal process times for each product or the production schedule. Consequently, delivery dates are more feasible and its adherence leads to a higher internal adherence to delivery of the production. The proposed approach has a high practical orientation, making its application easy on real production-process chains in a SIP.