From residential electric load profiles to flexibility profiles
A stochastic bottom-up approach
This paper presents a stochastic bottom-up model for flexibility in the residential electric load profile. The model accounts for user-behaviour and all relevant technologies, characterising their diversity in sizing and controller settings. The flexibility of technology is mapped into a linear electrical storage equivalent model, which is parameterised on-the-fly during simulation of the load profiles. Using a linear storage representation makes it suitable for optimisation methods that are commonly used in optimal controls. The model is used to study the flexibility of individual technologies as well as of a residential area in Germany taking into account technology penetration rates. The results indicate that EV and PV battery systems offer the largest values of switchable power and storage capacity. However when technology penetration rates are taken into account, heat pumps emerge as a major provider of flexibility.