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  4. Energy transition pathways to a low-carbon Europe in 2050: The degree of cooperation and the level of decentralization
 
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2020
Journal Article
Title

Energy transition pathways to a low-carbon Europe in 2050: The degree of cooperation and the level of decentralization

Abstract
In the framework of the Paris Agreement, the European Union (EU) will have to firmly set decarbonization targets to 2050. However, the viability on these targets is an ongoing discussion. The European Commission has made several propositions for energy and climate ""roadmaps"". In this regard, this paper contributes by analyzing alternative pathways derived in a unique modelling process. As part of the SET-Nav project, we defined four pathways to a clean, secure and efficient energy system-taking different routes. Two key uncertainties shape the SET-Nav pathways: the level of cooperation (i.e. cooperation versus entrenchment) and the level of decentralization (i.e. decentralization versus path dependency). All four pathways achieve an 85-95% emissions reduction by 2050. We include a broad portfolio of options under distinct framework conditions by comprehensively analyzing all energy-consuming and energy-providing sectors as well as the general economic conditions. We do this by applying a unique suite of linked models developed in the SET-Nav project. By linking more than ten models, we overcome the traditional limitation of models that cover one single sector while at the same time having access to detail sectoral data and expertise. In this paper, we focus on the implications for the energy demand sectors (buildings, transport, and industry) and the electricity supply mix in Europe and compare our insights of the electricity sector to the scenarios of the recent European Commission (2018a) report ""A clean Planet for all"".
Author(s)
Crespo del Granado, Pedro
Norwegian Univ. of Science and Technology Trondheim
Resch, Gustav
Technical Univ. Vienna
Holz, Franziska
German Institute for Economic Research
Welisch, Marijke  
Fraunhofer-Gesellschaft zur Förderung der angewandten Forschung e.V. ZV  
Geipel, Jasper
Technical Univ. Vienna
Hartner, Michael
Technical Univ. Vienna
Forthuber, Sebastian
Technical Univ. Vienna
Sensfuß, Frank  
Fraunhofer-Institut für System- und Innovationsforschung ISI  
Olmos, Luis
Comillas Pontifical Univ. Madrid
Bernath, Christiane  orcid-logo
Fraunhofer-Institut für System- und Innovationsforschung ISI  
Lumbreras, Sara
Comillas Pontifical Univ. Madrid
Kranzl, Lukas
Technical Univ. Vienna
Müller, Andreas
Technical Univ. Vienna
Heitel, Stephanie  
Fraunhofer-Institut für System- und Innovationsforschung ISI  
Herbst, Andrea  
Fraunhofer-Institut für System- und Innovationsforschung ISI  
Wilson, Charlie
Univ. of East Anglia Norwich
Ramos, Andrés
Comillas Pontifical Univ. Madrid
Journal
Economics of energy & environmental policy  
Project(s)
SET-Nav  
Funder
European Commission EC  
Open Access
DOI
10.5547/2160-5890.9.1.pcre
Language
English
Fraunhofer-Institut für System- und Innovationsforschung ISI  
Fraunhofer-Gesellschaft zur Förderung der angewandten Forschung e.V.  
Keyword(s)
  • energy transition

  • model linkage

  • pathway

  • Renewables

  • EU decarbonization policy

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