Modelling and analysis of solar cell efficiency distributions

We present an approach to model the distribution of solar cell efficiencies achieved in production lines based on numerical simulations, metamodeling and Monte Carlo simulations. We validate our methodology using the example of an industrial feasible p-type multicrystalline silicon "passivated emitter and rear cell" process. Applying the metamodel, we investigate the impact of each input parameter on the distribution of cell efficiencies in a variance-based sensitivity analysis, identifying the parameters and processes that need to be improved and controlled most accurately. We show that if these could be optimized, the mean cell efficiencies of our examined cell process would increase from 17.62% +/- 0.41% to 18.48% +/- 0.09%. As the method relies on advanced characterization and simulation techniques, we furthermore introduce a simplification that enhances applicability by only requiring two common measurements of finished cells. The presented approaches can be especially helpful for ramping-up production, but can also be applied to enhance established manufacturing.