Der neunte Foresight-Prozess in Japan 2010: Sind die Ergebnisse schon überholt?

In 2010, the Japanese National Institute of Science and Technology Policy published the 9th Foresight Activity. The Delphi surveys of this Foresight have been performed every 5 years since 1971 in order to update information about the future. The methodology broadened over time (see Cuhls 2007 und 2005a, b), was partly performed in international comparison, and meanwhile includes a Delphi survey, scenarios, bibliometrics and a demand-oriented (society-driven) survey (NISTEP 2010a-e). These Foresight studies are conducted under the auspices of the Council for Science and Technology Policy (CSTP) and results are directly used (of course among others) for the Basic Plan on Science and Technology. Unfortunately, the 9th Foresight was published shortly before the Great Eastern Japan Earthquake occurred - in fact, the results were presented to the international public two days before the earthquake. The intended release of the new 4th Basic Plan on Science and Technology in March 2011 (for the period 2011 to 2016) was postponed until August 2011. Nevertheless, the Foresight data are rather long-term and are therefore still regarded as valid. What can already be observed is a shift in the priorities of the country, especially in the field of energy. This article asks the question of long-range policy priorities in Japan and if indeed they remain the same as intended after the 9th Foresight. It describes this latest Foresight Activity in both substantive and methodological aspects and mentions some findings from the Foresight surveys that are relevant for the long-term development of Japan. The Basic Plan that is based on these data is also examined, and an outlook is given how the development might go on.