The use of simulation model FORRUS-S in the ecological management in forestry
Strategic and tactics planning
Computer program package FORRUS-S has been developed for simulation modeling of forest stand ecosystems dynamics. FORRUS-S consists of the model of natural development of multi-species uneven-aged stand, the model of exogenous influence (including silvicultural activities) and a set of accessories. The model utilizes the standard input data that have traditionally been using in forestry of the Russian Federation and available for virtually all Russian territory. An informational technology for forecasting data analysis and decision-making at forest management unit level was implemented by integrating a forest ecosystem model FORRUS-S with an interactive visualization and analysis of spatially and temporally referenced data system CommonGIS. The paper describes the results of computational experiments at different scenarios of forest management (natural development, legal forestry, and illegal forest practice) over 100 years. The paper discusses the results of an analysis of changes in forest biodiversity quantitatively estimated by monitoring a dynamics of various indicators using a sample forest stand located in the Moscow region (Central European Russia). Exploratory analysis of the simulation results demonstrated that (1) natural stand development is the best alternative for forest biodiversity; (2) legal forest management is the best regime for timber production; (3) illegal forest practices lead to a fast decrease in forest productivity and decreasing biodiversity. Interactive and dynamic visualizations with maps and statistical graphics played a crucial role in data cleaning, model validation, and analysis of simulation results. The case study demonstrated the potential of integrating forest ecosystem models with exploratory data visualization for the analysis and expert evaluation of forest biodiversity at the local level. This approach allows to bridge the gap between the researches done on developing the framework for measuring sustainability of forest management and a lack of similar efforts in monitoring and using these indicators as a formal part of the planning system.