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2024
Conference Paper
Title
Exploration of qualitative scenarios towards climate neutrality of the German building sector
Abstract
Scenario modelling is widely applied to quantify the develop ment of energy demand and GHG emissions in a given time
horizon. Transformation scenarios, on the other hand, are pri marily qualitative visions of the future that align with energy
transition objectives. Including current policies, technologi cal developments and societal trends in the scenarios allows
considering a wide range of possible future developments. Combining descriptive scenarios with quantitative modelling
results provides rich insights and contextual understanding that enhance the overall robustness of the analyses. This paper
develops a methodological approach for combining qualita tive scenarios and quantitative modelling to analyse the future
of energy consumption in the German building stock, which aims to become climate neutral by 2045. It describes a partici patory process that was followed to develop different transfor mation scenarios, taking into account technical, social, politi cal and economic aspects. The process included defining the geographical, content-related specification and the timeline of
the scenarios, identifying relevant scenario factors, trends and uncertainties that could affect the German building sector, and
describing underlying factors and assumptions regarding their future development. The paper then briefly presents an agent based framework for quantitatively modelling the qualitative scenarios. By modelling the representative buildings as agents,
the model can capture the details of individual buildings at the micro level, such as the efficiency of building components and
renovation decisions, heating systems and technologies and their replacement, and occupant behaviour. Through an itera tive exchange between scenario description and modelling, the qualitative scenarios representing different narratives are then
translated into the mechanisms and parameters in the model. The presented approach will be used to quantify the developed
scenarios for the energy demand of the German building stock until 2045.
horizon. Transformation scenarios, on the other hand, are pri marily qualitative visions of the future that align with energy
transition objectives. Including current policies, technologi cal developments and societal trends in the scenarios allows
considering a wide range of possible future developments. Combining descriptive scenarios with quantitative modelling
results provides rich insights and contextual understanding that enhance the overall robustness of the analyses. This paper
develops a methodological approach for combining qualita tive scenarios and quantitative modelling to analyse the future
of energy consumption in the German building stock, which aims to become climate neutral by 2045. It describes a partici patory process that was followed to develop different transfor mation scenarios, taking into account technical, social, politi cal and economic aspects. The process included defining the geographical, content-related specification and the timeline of
the scenarios, identifying relevant scenario factors, trends and uncertainties that could affect the German building sector, and
describing underlying factors and assumptions regarding their future development. The paper then briefly presents an agent based framework for quantitatively modelling the qualitative scenarios. By modelling the representative buildings as agents,
the model can capture the details of individual buildings at the micro level, such as the efficiency of building components and
renovation decisions, heating systems and technologies and their replacement, and occupant behaviour. Through an itera tive exchange between scenario description and modelling, the qualitative scenarios representing different narratives are then
translated into the mechanisms and parameters in the model. The presented approach will be used to quantify the developed
scenarios for the energy demand of the German building stock until 2045.
Author(s)
Rights
Under Copyright
Language
English