Assessment of the additional electricity demand to decarbonise the aviation sector in Germany until 2050 based on technology diffusion method

The hard-to-abate transportation sectors have a considerable share of overall GHG emissions. In particular, the aviation sector accounts for 2.5% of global anthropogenic CO2 emissions and is expected to grow further [1]. Decarbonisation of such sectors is currently high on the agenda in the European Union and its member states. The emissions associated with the aviation sector are anticipated to grow considerably, with possible increase across Germany as well as Europe. Mitigating such emissions requires deliberate efforts and planned interventions. Alternative fuels based on renewable electricity and new propulsion technologies can play a key role in the transition towards CO2-neutral, hard-to-abate transport sectors. Production and synthesis of such fuels are usually energy intensive process that requires substantially high electricity and higher penetration of renewable energy sources in the system. In this paper, two scenarios have been analysed by developing an agent based model to simulate the technology diffusion process. To systematically investigate the process considering a data driven bottom up approach, techno-economic, environmental, regulatory and infrastructural uncertainties were incorporated to represent the complexities of this sector. Model simulations gave multiple possibilities regarding the energy demand, the outputs of which were then compared with reference scenarios. Our findings show that the additional electricity demand in 2050 to decarbonise the aviation sector in Germany, is approximately 4 TWh via biological route, whereas using non-biological route the demand increased up to 109 TWh, resulting in a relative CO2 emission mitigation of roughly 58 %.