A meta-analysis of the decarbonisation pathways of the Chinese energy system until 2050/2060

It is challenging for China to achieve its long-term climate goals, of limiting temperature increase within 2 °C and reaching carbon neutrality by 2060, as the current energy supply is still dominated by fossil energy with 83 % in 2021. This study conducts a meta-analysis of 131 existing energy scenarios that achieve at least 70 % CO2 emission reduction by 2050 compared to 2020 levels, aiming to identify no-regret decarbonisation strategies under high future uncertainty. The analysis reveals a wide range of projected pathways, yet consistently highlights four no-regret actions: improving energy efficiency, expanding and integrating renewable energy, increasing electrification across end-use sectors and applying hydrogen and synthetic fuels in hard-to-abate sectors. On average, scenario projections indicate an Improved energy intensity of 1.9 MJ/USD2020 PPP, renewables supplying 49 % of primary energy and 65 % of electricity, end-use electrification rates of 52 %, and deployment of around 8 EJ of hydrogen and synthetic fuels by 2050. Compared with global indicators for the 1.5 °C target from IRENA, these projections remain conservative, suggesting the need for more ambitious actions. Scenarios achieving net-negative emissions require faster efficiency improvements, electrification approaching 90 % in industry, and large-scale deployment of bioenergy with carbon capture and storage. Overall, the results underline the importance of focusing on no-regret measures that remain effective across diverse futures, supported by timely infrastructure expansion, investment, investment, and institutional capacity.