How to increase the transparency of ex-ante impact evaluations of energy efficiency and climate policies. Illustrated by the example of a funding program for energy and resource efficiency in industry in Germany

Both at European and national level, the requirements for reporting on measures introduced to achieve EU-wide and national energy efficiency and climate targets have increased considerably in recent years. While ex-post impact evaluation of policies and measures is nationally as well as internationally rather well documented, ex-ante reporting processes are still rather inconsistent and often suffer from a lack of transparency. In Germany, the need for a transparent and consistent methodological approach to quantify the impact of new climate measures on the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions has been strengthened by the Federal Climate Change Act from 2019. The new law both requires scientific estimates of probable greenhouse gas reduction effect as well as other economic, social and environmental impacts and gives the newly founded Council of Experts on Climate Change a prominent role in reviewing these estimated impacts. Against this background, this paper aims at developing a consistent methodology for a good practice of ex-ante impact evaluations, which provides a common methodological guideline for the design and monitoring of energy and climate policies and measures. First, we derive the key factors to be taken into account for a consistent and transparent ex-ante impact evaluation of these policies. These include (a) the relevant assessment criteria (b) the assumptions on key framework data (c) the methodological approach for determining gross impacts of the measure (d) the effect adjustment approach for the calculation of net effects and (e) requirements for a transparent handling of uncertainties. Secondly, we suggest concrete methodological procedures and possible data sources for each of these steps. A case study, the ex-ante impact evaluation of a funding program for energy and resource efficiency in industry for the period 2021 to 2030, serves to illustrate the methodological approach and its different steps. We also show that a standardised data collection significantly increases the transparency and comparability of the impact evaluation process and the evaluation results. This can e.g. be implemented by a standardised template for the documentation of input parameters, evaluation methods and output parameters.