When do incumbents adopt radical net-zero technologies? Analysing differences in strategy trajectories of European truck manufacturers towards alternative vehicle technologies

Net-zero vehicle technologies are essential to curb CO2 emissions from heavy-duty road transport. This study investigates the innovation strategies of European truck manufacturers following the EU's decision to limit CO2 emissions of heavy-duty vehicles in 2019. Our analysis is based on interviews with managers from all European truck manufacturers and publicly available documents covering the period from 2018 to 2021. We find four different types of strategy trajectories: proactive diversifier, focused leapfrogger, initial incrementalist, and diverse follower; these range from manufacturers with proactive strategies towards all alternative technologies to those favouring more incremental technologies and displaying laggard-like behaviour towards more radical technologies. Our analysis reveals that these types show a close match to key markets, resources and competencies, research investments, knowledge acquisitions, and expectations towards low-carbon technologies and infrastructures. Additionally, we uncover interdependencies with other segments and markets, the growing political weight of the vehicle industry through infrastructure provision, and the consolidating market impact resulting from necessary collaborations to achieve ambitious (political) decarbonisation targets with increasingly stringent policies. We conclude that both technology-neutral and technology-specific policies can restrict the adoption of potentially more efficient net-zero technologies and recommend leveraging firm-level determinants for more effective net-zero policy mixes.