Reduction of wind power induced reserve requirements by advanced shortest-term forecasts and prediction intervals

In electricity systems with large penetration of wind power, the limited predictability of the wind power generation leads to an increase in reserve and balancing requirements. At first the present study1 concentrates on the capability of dynamic day-ahead prediction intervals to reduce the wind power induced reserve and balancing requirements. Alternatively the reduction of large forecast errors of the German wind power generation by using advanced shortest term predictions has been evaluated in a second approach. With focus on the allocation of minute reserve power the aim is to estimate the maximal remaining uncertainty after trading activities on the intraday market. Finally both approaches were used in a case study concerning the reserve requirements induced by the total German wind power expansion in 2007.