Data-Driven Modeling of the Ramp-Up of Electric Heating Systems

The heating transition in the building sector requires a rapid transformation towards emission-free heating systems. This paper presents a data-driven modeling to find out the ramp-up time of electric heating systems based on the municipal heating planning of the municipality of Niederkassel. Extensive geodata (including 3D building models, real estate cadastre, census data) is integrated at building address level in order to record the current building stock, heat demand and heating technologies in detail. Missing consumption data is simulated using a building envelope model in accordance with DIN EN ISO 13790. The refurbishment status of the building stock is derived heuristically from specific heat consumption in order to quantify potential savings. Based on this, a target scenario for 2045 is developed, in which an almost complete electrification of the heat supply - primarily through heat pumps - is envisaged on the basis of suitability criteria. The results show a possible reduction in CO2 emissions of ~98 % with a simultaneous reducing heat demand by ~19 %. The approach presented demonstrates how municipal heat planning can be supported precisely and efficiently by data-driven analyses.