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  4. Co-creating socio-technical scenarios for net-zero emission pathways: Comparison of five national case studies
 
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2023
Journal Article
Title

Co-creating socio-technical scenarios for net-zero emission pathways: Comparison of five national case studies

Abstract
The extent to which modelled future pathways support effective policymaking for sustainability transitions has been questioned for a long time, with one major issue being the insufficient integration with the perspectives of policymakers and other stakeholders. One proposal to address this issue has been to set up facilitative dialogues with stakeholders to extend model-based pathways to socio-technical scenarios. This paper presents the results of a first series of such co-creation workshops, where stakeholders discussed bottlenecks for model-based decarbonisation pathways and ways to overcome these bottlenecks through tailored policy mixes. The workshops took place in five countries: Brazil, Canada, Greece, Germany, and the UK, each with a specific sector focus. In all five workshops, it became clear that substantial tensions exist between the “ideal” modelled decarbonisation pathways and the real-world situation on the ground. Also, adverse political framework conditions, uncertainty of future policies and resistance of powerful actors were emphasised as overarching bottlenecks in most workshops. At the same time, in several instances stakeholders pointed out important aspects of transformative trajectories that are not covered by the models. Some challenges and solutions stand out in all countries in spite of the strong diversity of contexts: allocation of capital towards massive investments into low-carbon solutions; infrastructure development for generation and transport of hydrogen, capture and use of CO2 as well as electricity grid and storage adapted to renewable energy solutions; stakeholder and citizen dialogues, where agreement is reached on cornerstones of long-term decarbonisation trajectories; and demand-side measures complementing investments into low-carbon processes.
Author(s)
Wachsmuth, Jakob  
Fraunhofer-Institut für System- und Innovationsforschung ISI  
Warnke, Philine  orcid-logo
Fraunhofer-Institut für System- und Innovationsforschung ISI  
Gambhir, Ajay
Imperial College London, Grantham Institute for Climate Change
Giarola, Sara
Imperial College London, Chemical Engineering Department
Koasidis, Konstantinos
National Technical University of Athens, School of Electrical & Computer Engineering
Mittal, Shivika
Imperial College London, Grantham Institute for Climate Change
Nikas, Alexandros
National Technical University of Athens, School of Electrical & Computer Engineering
Vaillancourt, Kathleen
ESMIA Consultants, Montreal, Québec
Doukas, Haris
National Technical University of Athens, School of Electrical & Computer Engineering
Journal
Renewable and sustainable energy transition  
Open Access
File(s)
Download (4.55 MB)
Rights
CC BY 4.0: Creative Commons Attribution
DOI
10.1016/j.rset.2023.100064
10.24406/publica-1959
Language
English
Fraunhofer-Institut für System- und Innovationsforschung ISI  
Keyword(s)
  • Transition bottlenecks

  • Sectoral transformations

  • Stakeholder integration

  • Transformative policy mix

  • Foresight

  • Techno-economic modelling

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