The Delphi Method: An Introduction

The Delphi method has developed from a "classic" to a variety of Delphi methods or "types", which can have very different functions and are used in different subject areas. Online variants, especially the Real-time Delphi with instant feedback are becoming more and more popular. This introduction explains the different definitions, types and fields of application and shows the most important points to consider when using one of the Delphi methods. Special attention should be paid to the participants and their different backgrounds and expertise as well as to the design of the "questionnaire". For example, typical questions in a Delphi are about the importance or time horizon of realizing a statement about a future issue, e.g. a problem solution in the health care system, a technology, or an educational measure. The Delphi method will continue to have a place in the canon of methods used in Foresight and Futures Research as well as in general empirical research in various disciplines where uncertainty is an issue (e.g. business administration). The method will be integrated more and more into overall processes and is a building block in the method mix of futures sciences, e.g. coupled with scenarios.