Fraunhofer-Institut für System- und Innovationsforschung ISI

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Now showing 1 - 10 of 15
  • Publication
    The future potential hydrogen demand in energy-intensive industries - a site-specific approach applied to Germany
    ( 2022)
    Neuwirth, Marius orcid-logo
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    Fleiter, Tobias
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    Manz, Pia orcid-logo
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    Hofmann, René
    Hydrogen, when based on renewable electricity, can play a key role in the transition towards CO2-neutral industrial production, since its use as an energy carrier as well as a feedstock in various industrial process routes is promising. At the same time, a large-scale roll-out of hydrogen for industrial use would entail substantial impacts on the energy system, which can only be assessed if the regional distribution of future hydrogen demand is considered. Here, we assess the technical potential of hydrogen-based technologies for energy-intensive industries in Germany. The site-specific and process-specific bottom-up calculation considers 615 individual plants at 367 sites, and results in a total potential hydrogen demand of 326 TWh/a. The results are available as an open dataset. Using hydrogen for non-energy-intensive sectors as well increases the potential hydrogen demand to between 482 and 534 TWh/a for Germany - based on today's industrial structure and production output. This assumes that fossil fuels are almost completely replaced by hydrogen for process heating and feedstocks. The resulting hydrogen demand is very unevenly distributed: a few sites account for the majority of the overall potential and, similarly, the bulk of demand is concentrated in a few regions with steel and chemical clusters.
  • Publication
    Auctions for Renewable Energy Support II - First insights and results of the Horizon2020 project AURES II
    ( 2021)
    Anatolitis, Vasilios orcid-logo
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    Río, Pablo Del
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    Amazo, Ana
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    Bartek-Lesi, Mária
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    Blücher, Felix von
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    Breitschopf, Barbara orcid-logo
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    Brückmann, Robert
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    Dukan, Mak
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    Ehrhart, Karl-Martin
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    Fitch-Roy, Oscar
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    Geipel, Jasper
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    Hanke, Ann-Katrin
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    Jimeno, Moira
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    Kiefer, Christoph P. orcid-logo
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    Kitzing, Lena
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    Marquardt, Mats
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    Menzies, Craig
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    Resch, Gustav
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    Roth, Augustin
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    Szabó, Lásló
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    Wigand, Fabian
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    Winkler, Jenny
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    Woodman, Bridget
    The Horizon2020 project AURES II aims at ensuring the effective implementation of auctions for renewable energies in the EU Member States (MS). In recent years, auction schemes for the allocation of support for renewable electricity sources (RES) have been advancing rapidly across Europe Auctions are considered to have brought down support levels and increased planning capability for RES deployment and state budgets. In some unfortunate cases, they have, however, also resulted in delayed or unrealised projects and increased uncertainty for project developers. A variety of auction designs are still being tested and introduced in EU MS, as well as foreseen by European legislation. Therefore, there is still a need for further assessment and improvement of national auction design and implementation to ensure the future success of RES auctions in Europe. Applying different qualitative and quantitative methods in the various work packages (WPs), the AURES II project partners have already drafted and published a large number of reports and studies. This article aims at comprehensively presenting these results and provide a first overview.
  • Publication
    Cost-effectiveness of large scale heat pumps in district heating networks - a simulation model for a case study in Germany
    ( 2017)
    Popovski, Eftim
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    Fleiter, Tobias
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    Steinbach, Jan
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    Aydemir, Ali orcid-logo
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    Büchele, Richard
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    Kranzl, Lukas
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    Hummel, Marcus
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    Münster, Marie
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    Ben Amer-Allam, Sara
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    Petrovic, Stefan
  • Publication
    Database tools for policy development - presenting building stock renovation programme potentials through Energy Saving Cost Curves
    ( 2016)
    Anagnostopoulos, Filippos
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    Kranzl, Lukas
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    Steinbach, Jan
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    Staniaszek, Dan
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    Toleikyte, Agne
    The use of buildings databases has an enormous potential to inform decision-making in order to decarbonize the building stock by 2050. This paper showcases the potential of databases and, by using the example of Germany, it presents a methodology for appraising the economic and energy reduction outcomes of building renovation policies. A dynamic bottom-up simulation model, the Invert/EE-Lab, evaluates the effects of three scenarios of economic and regulatory incentives for three different renovation packages oriented towards the standards defined by the German building code (EnEV) as well as the support programmes of the Federal Development Bank (KfW). Results are presented visually through Energy Saving Cost Curves which communicate the energy savings and avoided energy costs following renovation programmes of the German building stock. The results show that under a range of realistic scenarios to 2030, the total economic energy saving potentials range from 60 to 170 TWh/y, and correspond to financial savings that range from 1.2 to 6.2 bne/y. Energy Saving Cost Curves provide a means to compare the impact of different policy options from the perspective of the investor for different building categories, and can thereby feed directly into the design of renovation strategies -whether at national, regional or city level- taking into consideration economic parameters ranging from subsidies and energy prices, to transaction costs, learning curves and discount rates.
  • Publication
    A concept to assess the costs and benefits of renewable energy use and distributional effects among actors: The example of Germany
    ( 2016)
    Breitschopf, Barbara orcid-logo
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    Held, Anne
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    Resch, Gustav
    This paper describes a concept for the detailed assessment of the costs and benefits of renewable energy technologies deployment. A first quantitative impact assessment of German renewable energy technologies use is conducted from a historical perspective based on this comprehensive method. It includes costs and benefits at three different levels - energy system, micro- and macro-economic. The findings suggest that, at the system level, the generation costs in the electricity and heat sector are partly compensated by positive effects mainly from avoided emissions due to the use of renewable energy technologies in the electricity and heat sector. On the electricity market, small power consumers bear a very large share of the policy costs, while others might even profit from renewable energy technologies use. However, a comprehensive assessment that accounts for all the different negative and positive effects in the long term, including distributional effects, is more challenging. The concept applied here allows a differentiated comparison of a wide range of effects including aggregated costs and benefits as well as how these are distributed across different economic actors.
  • Publication
    Die Sanierung des deutschen Gebäudebestandes - eine wirtschaftliche Bewertung aus Investorensicht
    ( 2016)
    Steinbach, Jan
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    Staniaszek, Dan
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    Anagnostopoulos, Filippos
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    Lottes, Ralf
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    Kranzl, Lukas
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    Toleikyte, Agne
  • Publication
    Energy saving cost curves as a tool for policy development - case study of the German building stock
    ( 2016)
    Kranzl, Lukas
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    Anagnostopoulos, Filippos
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    Müller, Andreas
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    Staniaszek, Dan
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    Steinbach, Jan
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    Toleikyte, Agne
    The building sector within the EU accounts for about 40% of final energy use and one-third of greenhouse gas emissions. Buildings therefore should play an important role in meeting the EU climate targets. Using the example of Germany, the largest economy of the EU, this paper sets out the methodology for appraising the contribution that comprehensive building renovations, comprising both fabric insulation and heating system upgrades, can make towards decreasing energy use. A dynamic bottom-up simulation model, the Invert/EE-Lab model, evaluates the effects of three scenarios of economic and regulatory incentives for three different renovation packages oriented towards the standards defined by the German building code (EnEv) as well as the support programmes of the KfW development bank. Results are presented visually through Energy Saving Cost Curves which communicate the monetary costs (or savings) and the energy savings for 16 building categories that represent the entirety of the German building stock. The Energy Saving Cost Curves developed in this paper represent the investors' perspective to 2030. Under the Business As Usual scenario, the total cost effective energy savings potential amounts to 60 TWh/a, avoids 1.1 bne/a in energy costs, and comprises most of the non-residential building categories and the oldest residential buildings built before 1948. Increasing the level of subsidy in the High Subsidy scenario results in an almost doubling of cost-effective savings to 118 TWh/a while increasing energy cost savings to 1.9 bne/a. Energy Saving Cost Curves provide a means to compare the impact of different policy options from the perspective of the investor for different building categories, and can thereby feed directly into the design of renovation strategies -whether at national, regional or city level- under a wide variety of conditions and taking into consideration economic parameters ranging from subsidies and energy prices, to transaction costs, learning curves and discount rates.
  • Publication
    A prospective assessment of costs and benefits of renewable energy use in the European Union
    ( 2016)
    Resch, Gustav
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    Welisch, Marijke
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    Liebmann, Lukas
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    Breitschopf, Barbara orcid-logo
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    Held, Anne
    This article presents the outcomes of an assessment of expected costs and benefits of future renewable energy use in the European Union by 2020 and beyond. A binding European Union-wide renewable energy systems target of achieving at least 27% renewable energy systems share in gross final energy demand by 2030 was adopted by the Council of the European Union in October 2014. This has to be seen as an important first step in defining the framework for renewable energy systems post-2020. Other steps, like a clear concept for and an agreement on the effort sharing across Member States have to follow. For doing so, clarity on associated costs and benefits of the future renewable energy systems expansion across European Union Member Sta-tes appears highly beneficial. The aim of this article is to contribute to the renewable energy systems policy debate, providing an indication of costs and benefits resulting from increased renewable energy systems deployment within the European Union in the 2020 and 2030 frameworks. Within the discussion of costs and benefits, we follow a standardized concept that takes into account the diversity of policies in force and depicts the cost and benefits of renewable energy systems deployment at different le-vels, avoiding double counting or mixing up of effects. The outcomes of the analysis presented here remain, however, incomplete, focussing on certain indicators and on a related cross-country comparison rather than presenting a complete overview on expected impacts of future renewable energy systems deployment within the European Union.
  • Publication
    Renewable energy deployment in Europe up to 2030 and the aim of a triple dividend
    ( 2016)
    Duscha, Vicki
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    Fougeyrollas, Arnaud
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    Nathani, Carsten
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    Pfaff, Matthias
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    Ragwitz, Mario
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    Resch, Gustav
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    Schade, Wolfgang
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    Breitschopf, Barbara orcid-logo
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    Walz, Rainer orcid-logo
    Renewable energy sources (RES) play a key role in the European Commission's 2030 Climate and Energy Framework, which aims for a low-carbon economy that increases the security of the EU's energy supplies and creates new opportunities for growth and jobs, among other benefits. We assess whether renewable energy deployment in Europe can provide this ""triple dividend"", at which ambition levels of 2030 RES targets and what the role of the support policy scheme for electricity is. We apply two types of models: a detailed techno-economic sector model of the deployment of RES and two macroeconomic models. Our findings suggest that up to 2030 our triple-dividend hypothesis holds even under a declining role of Europe as technology provider for the rest of the world. Additional emission reductions of up to 1040 Mt CO2, as compared to a baseline scenario in 2030, are possible. Demand for fossil fuels can likewise be reduced due to the deployment of renewable energy sources by up to 150 Mtoe. More ambiguous is the order of magnitude of the effects on GDP and employment, which differs noticeably depending on the economic theory applied in the different models. Nevertheless, both models predict slightly higher GDP and employment in 2030 when implementing ambitious RES targets.
  • Publication
    Evaluating the current EU energy efficiency policy framework and its impact until 2020 and 2030 (1-473-15) (1-473-15)
    ( 2015)
    Schlomann, Barbara
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    Eichhammer, Wolfgang orcid-logo
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    Krail, Michael orcid-logo
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    Reuter, Matthias
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    Braungardt, Sibylle
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    Fleiter, Tobias
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    Kranzl, Lukas
    The current state of achieving the 20% energy saving target by 2020 as well as the realization of the EU 2030 target adopted in October rank very high on the EU energy policy agenda. Scenario-based analysis using bottom-up simulation models provides information on the impact of implemented policies as well as future saving potentials. Our analysis has two main objectives: (i) to assess the contribution of implemented policies towards achieving the 2020 energy efficiency target of 20%; (ii) to assess energy efficiency potentials beyond implemented policies until 2020 and 2030. For both objectives, we apply a bottom-up modelling approach using detailed sector models covering residential and non-residential buildings, industry, residential and tertiary appliances as well as transport. In order to assess the different policy options and saving potentials, we define several scenarios including a baseline (with and without early action and with planned measures), a scenario with additional measures not yet implemented and three scenarios representing saving potentials (from very cost-effective to ""near economic""). Our results show that the scenario including early action misses the 20% energy saving target by 2020 by about 2.3%. Including additional measures (and intensifying existing measures) it is possible to reach the 20% target. Regarding the new 2030 targets of the EU, our modelling approach shows that primary energy consumption can be reduced by 41% compared to the PRIMES 2007 baseline by fully exploiting the economic energy savings potentials. This is considerably more than the reduction by 27% as decided by the European Council. The resulting decrease of GHG emissions amounts to more than 45% in this scenario (assuming a share of renewable of 27%). The detailed modelling of policies and technologies allows a sector-specific analysis of the contribution of individual policy instruments and technologies towards the above mentioned targets. Only such detailed models allow simulating the different types of energy-efficiency policies (e.g. standards, taxes, ETS, audits, information programs, subsidies).