Fraunhofer-Institut für System- und Innovationsforschung ISI

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Re-imagining energy services: Empirical analysis of demand-side as-a-service business models and use cases in energy sector

2024 , Singh, Mahendra , Kesselring, Anne , Klobasa, Marian

Purpose: Study on emerging and market-proven services (as-a-Service) business models for delivering digital services in the energy and building sector. Design/Methodology/Approach: Online survey and semi-structured interviews combined with desk research. Findings:The most important benefit from XaaS according to the empirical results is transparency and better engagement with end customers. Additionally, the interviews indicate that returns to investment do not materialize faster, but rather the quality of these returns increases with XaaS. The shifting of the initial investment risk from the customer to the company is noted as a downside of XaaS. The two top challenges are (a) technical and informational interoperability of services and (b) availability and access of data to design a new XaaS service offering. Regulatory risk is the top-ranked risk category, followed by market and financial risk. This risk perception includes also barriers from bureaucracy, red tape and lack of standardization. Originality/Value: Empirical evidence on practitioners’ views of XaaS, the status quo of implementation regarding energy-related service offerings and an outlook on XaaS development.

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Influencing factors for users’ privacy and security protection behavior in smart speakers: Insights from a Swiss user study

2023 , Ebbers, Frank , Karaboga, Murat

Smart speakers pose several risks to security and privacy, which users can counter with protective measures. This paper investigates the factors contributing to the adoption of protective measures by smart speaker users. Using survey data from Swiss participants, we first captured four different combinations of users with (no) concerns and (no) measures. We then used six factors to examine which of these influence protective behavior. Our findings reveal that whether or not protective measures are taken is affected by the usage context, usage duration, gender, opinion toward emotion recognition, and reasons for acquisition, but not by model/manufacturer, age and education level. With our results, we want to contribute to the ongoing discussion about influencing factors on concerns and protective measures, using the smart speaker domain as an example.

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Pathways to a near carbon-neutral German industry sector by 2045: A model-based scenario comparison and recommendations for action

2022 , Herbst, Andrea , Fleiter, Tobias , Rehfeldt, Matthias , Neuwirth, Marius

In 2018, emissions from the industrial sector in Germany amounted to around 190 million tons of CO2 equivalents, the majority of which were caused by companies in energy-intensive industries. According to Germany’s reduction target for this sector, these emissions must fall to 118 million metric tons by 2030. Its high dependence on fossil fuels, technical restrictions and hardly avoidable process emissions pose major challenges for the sector. In order to achieve near climate-neutrality in 2045, these challenges require a profound transformation in the basic materials industries. This contribution presents the results of a comprehensive bottom-up assessment comparing four technology pathways to a near carbon-neutral German industry sector until 2045. The analysis was carried out using the bottom-up energy demand model FORECAST, which is characterized by a high degree of technology and process detail. Its results show that the goal of a nearly carbon-neutral industrial sector in 2045 is possible, but will require enormous efforts. Large amounts of CO2-neutral secondary energy carriers like electricity and hydrogen will be needed in addition to improvements in material and energy efficiency. Depending on the technology focus, the amount of electricity used nearly doubles from 226 TWh up to 413 TWh in 2045. In the case of a “hydrogen economy,” the industrial use of hydrogen as a feedstock and as an energy source increases up to 342 TWh in 2045. The time horizon to 2030 is crucial if the transition to a near climate-neutral industry sector is to succeed by 2045. It must be possible to scale up CO2-neutral processes from the pilot and demonstration stage to industrial level by 2030 and enable their economic operation. This contribution therefore also places particular emphasis on the period up to 2030 and discusses those options for action in this time frame which have proved to be robust in several scenarios. The need for additional action is also elaborated based on the scenario results.

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Future hydrogen demands from industry transition towards 2030 - a site-specific bottom-up assessment for North-Western Europe

2022 , Neuwirth, Marius , Fleiter, Tobias , Khanra, Manish , Shinde, Manoj , Jovicic, Milkica

Industry decarbonisation is currently high on the agenda in the EU and its member states, as this sector has substantial shares in overall GHG emissions while it faces serious challenges to decarbonise. Hydrogen based on renewable electricity can have a key role in the transition towards a CO2-neutral industrial production since its use as an energy carrier as well as a feedstock in various industrial process routes is promising. To scale-up hydrogen infrastructure in North-West Europe, a deep systemic understanding with a detailed spatial perspective is required. With industry representing a high-priority sector for the use of CO2-neutral hydrogen, a site-specific analysis of hydrogen demands from industry is essential. Here, we conduct an analysis of the potential demand of hydrogen for the industrial transition in North-West Europe (Netherlands, north-west Germany, Belgium, northern France, Luxembourg). The region is a centre of the European heavy industry value chain and is seen as a pioneer region for industry transition. Our method is based on a techno-economic scenario approach that considers 515 individual industrial plants allocated to 185 sites. We calculate transformation pathways based on re-investment cycles and plant age. We present the resulting hydrogen demands by sector and spatially distributed at the level of sites and NUTS3 regions. Limiting the use of hydrogen to feedstocks and high-temperature process heat, we calculate a total technical demand potential of about 250 TWh/a based on 180 individual plants. Considering re-investment cycles and plants due for re-investment until 2030 shows a potential hydrogen demand of 55 TWh/a. Aggregating the hydrogen demand by NUTS3 region, we identify 12 regions with a total technical demand potential of 10 TWh/a or more mainly concentrating around the large chemical and steel clusters. The resulting data set is available for download and can be used in energy-systems studies to improve the resolution of industry sector.

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Reciprocity of Data Sharing Infrastructures: A Conceptual Norms Framework

2023 , Metzger, Frederik , Runge, Greta

Data sharing infrastructures are increasingly encouraged and set up at the European level. We hypothesize that their success will depend on the quantitative and qualitative contributions of virtual data and the balance between data contribution and retrieval. While, indeed, there is sharing taking place in the semantic sense of the term, we identify that reciprocity is a more adequate description of the participants’ underlying social processes. The aim of this paper is to transfer the concept of reciprocity from the individual level to the data sharing setting. How can reciprocity be described in the data sharing context? What are differences to reciprocity at the individual level? We distinguish the moral, social, and legal levels of norms to build a conceptual framework. Furthermore, we introduce four contingencies to account for the changed context of both the decision entity and the characteristics of virtual data. Our study concludes with a suggestion to conceptually describe a “reciprocity norm of data sharing.”

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Szenarioprozesse für die Wissenschaftskommunikation am Beispiel von Quantentechnologien

2023 , Gutknecht, Ralph , Schirrmeister, Elna , Kimpeler, Simone

Die Öffnung des Innovationssystems für neue Akteure ist für die Wettbewerbsfähigkeit von Unternehmen und den Standort Deutschland insgesamt von zentraler Bedeutung. Dabei geht es um die Einbindung diverser Stakeholder in den Innovationsprozess, um in Zeiten zunehmender Komplexität und gesellschaftlicher Dynamik deren Wissen einzubeziehen, Synergien für F&E zu nutzen und zukünftige Bedarfe und Marktpotenziale zu identifizieren. Angemessene Konzepte der Wissenschafts- und Innovationskommunikation sind notwendig, um zu den Funktionsweisen und Potenzialen von Technologien mit unterschiedlichen Zielgruppen in den Dialog zu treten. Dies ist insbesondere bei Zukunftstechnologien mit disruptivem Potenzial wie den Quantentechnologien herausfordernd, da sich deren Funktionsweisen und Auswirkungen nicht intuitiv mit dem heutigen Alltagserleben vereinbaren lassen. Die Szenario-Methodik kann hier einen wichtigen Beitrag leisten, indem sie die Technologien in mögliche Anwendungskontexte einbindet und die Chancen und Risiken sowie die Wünsche und Anforderungen an die Technologien auf der Basis unterschiedlicher Zukünfte reflektiert. Unser Beitrag stellt einen zu diesem Zweck angepassten partizipativen Szenarioprozess vor, sowie seine Umsetzung im BMBF geförderten Verbund-Projekt "QUANTA: QUANTisch für Anfänger:innen". Dabei wurden unter Einbezug verschiedener Fachexpert:innen vier Anwendungsszenarien für Quantentechnologien im Jahr 2040 entwickelt und diese im Rahmen verschiedener Dialogformate insbesondere mit Jugendlichen als zukünftige Fachkräfte und Anwender:innen erprobt.

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Data protection impact assessments in practice

2022 , Friedewald, Michael , Schiering, Ina , Martin, Nicholas , Hallinan, Dara

In the context of the project "A Data Protection Impact Assessment (DPIA) Tool for Practical Use in Companies and Public Administration" an operationalization for Data Protection Impact Assessments was developed based on the approach of Forum Privatheit. This operationalization was tested and refined during twelve tests with startups, small- and medium sized enterprises, corporations and public bodies. This paper presents the operationalization and summarizes the experience from the tests.

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Mehrstufige strategische Frühaufklärung durch iterative automatisierte Themenerkennung und Fusion von Nachrichten-, Journal- und Patenttexten mittels Natural Language Processing (NLP)

2023 , Haan, Philipp , Berbig, Manuel , Blum, Ralph , Jörden, Jan , Schirrmeister, Elna , Zimmermann, Roland

In der strategischen Frühaufklärung liegen bislang ungenutzte Potenziale, da verschiedene Datenquellen wie Nachrichtentexte, Journalpublikationen und Patentdaten meist isoliert voneinander analysiert werden. Automatisierte NLP-Verfahren finden hierzu zunehmend Anwendung. Die spezifischen Charakteristika der Quellen werden jedoch nicht beachtet: 1) Nachrichtentexte sind zeitlich sehr aktuell, umfangreich und redaktionell teilweise vorgefiltert. Sie lenken den Blick auf aktuelle gesellschaftliche und technologische Entwicklungen, haben aber oft nur eine kurze Halbwertszeit. 2) Publikations- und Patentdatenbanken haben eine verifizierte Qualität und erlauben eine längerfristige Betrachtung von Themenentwicklungen, liegen jedoch lange Zeit außerhalb der breiteren gesellschaftlichen Wahrnehmung. Die verschiedenen Fristigkeiten ermöglichen eine iterative, sequenzielle Nutzung der Quellentypen mit dem Ziel, in der breiten Öffentlichkeit auftauchende Themenentwicklungen rasch zu erkennen (durch 1) und diese mittels längerfristigen, inhaltlich detaillierten Daten (durch 2) in einem zweiten Schritt zu präzisieren. Dazu werden automatisierte Ansätze zur Themenextraktion auf Basis von aktuellen Transformer-Sprachmodellen genutzt, die sich in den letzten Jahren als Instrument der strategischen Frühaufklärung etabliert haben.

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Eine Multi-Level-Perspektive für Nischeninnovationen

2023 , Schirrmeister, Elna , Kirstgen, Anna , Rörden, Jan , Hermann, Sibylle

In einer VUCA-Welt (Volatile, Uncertain, Complex, Ambiguous) wird es immer wichtiger, neue Möglichkeiten zu schaffen, wie sich Akteure aus Wirtschaft, Gesellschaft und Politik mit möglichen Veränderungen auseinandersetzen können. Im Rahmen eines Projektes für das Land Baden-Württemberg haben wir ein Dashboard entwickelt - einen sogenannten Zukunftsscanner - der die Akteure in der Region dabei unterstützt. Die Suchstrategie und die Interpretation der Signale wurde an die Multi-Layer-Perspektive (MLP) [GS07] angelehnt, zudem wurde eine Kombination aus automatisierten und qualitativen Verfahren für die Auswahl der Signale genutzt. Entsprechend des Grundgedankens der MLP, dass Veränderungen sowohl durch einzelne technologische Entwicklungen oder Praktiken (in sogenannten Nischen) als auch durch veränderte gesellschaftliche Rahmenbedingungen (auf der sogenannten Landschaftsebene) entstehen können, wurde die Auswahl der Quellen sehr breit aufgestellt. Als Informationsquellen wurden Nachrichtenseiten genutzt, da diese für automatisierte Extraktion von Topics aus ganz unterschiedlichen Regionen und Bereichen geeignet sind und damit eine große Vielfalt an "Nischeninnovationen" identifiziert werden kann. Dem MLP-Grundgedanken folgend, dass sich Veränderungen besonders dynamisch entwickeln, wenn es zu einem sogenannten "Alignment" kommt, bei dem sich die Entwicklungen gegenseitig verstärken, wurde ein Diversitätsindikator entwickelt und für die Auswahl der Themen genutzt. Dieser Indikator berücksichtigt bei der Themenauswahl, in welchen globalen Regionen und in welchen technologischen, wissenschaftlichen oder wirtschaftlichen Bereichen ein Thema diskutiert wird. Für die spezifische Perspektive von Baden-Württemberg wurden über Interviews Hinweise gesammelt, bei welchen Themen besondere Potenziale, für die Innovationsakteure aus Baden-Württemberg gesehen werden. Die Entwicklung des Zukunftsscanners beschreibt den Versuch, über eine wissenschaftlich fundierte und methodisch avancierte Suche nach frühen Signalen des technologischen und gesellschaftlichen Wandels, die Innovationsakteure in Baden-Württemberg dabei zu unterstützen, sich mit Veränderungen aktiv auseinanderzusetzen.

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A German, an Italian, a Polish, and an EU official walk into a stakeholder workshop: Supporting energy efficiency policies with the multiple impacts approach

2022 , Berger, Frederic , Schlomann, Barbara , Pizzini, Giulia , Rogulj, Ivana , Mischkowski, Niklas S. , Reuter, Matthias

The EU Commission’s Fit for 55 package has outlined the need for increased emission reductions to comply with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5 °C target. Incentivising more ambitious action, the multiple impacts approach emphasises co-benefits of energy efficiency, essentially increasing the cost effectiveness of related measures from a holistic perspective. Major EU projects such as ODYSSEEMURE and COMBI have expedited the knowledge base and methodology. However, in spite of significant benefits discovered and various tools created throughout these projects, the approach is hardly applied in policy-making, complexity and a limited applicability to new contexts being central inhibitions. Therefore, central tenets of the Multiple Impacts Assessment Tool (MICAT) project are the consideration of European, national, and local levels and the involvement of relative stakeholders and policy-makers in the whole development process of the resulting MICATool, in order to better tailor it to their wishes and needs. The involvement will start right from the conception and design phase: in the course of three national and one EU workshops, as well as in an ongoing exchange with three pilot cities, the demands and requirements regarding the design of the tool, the inputs, and the form of the results are discussed with stakeholders and policy-makers - ranging from European Commission (EC) officials and experts working on climate and energy at EU level, to national officials working in Ministries and other relevant bodies, to local administrators. This will allow the project team to shape and tailor the tool to fit the policy-making process as seamlessly as possible, envisaging the objective to render the multiple impacts approach a paramount aspect of cost-benefit analyses, enabling more ambitious policies to comply with the omnipresent cost effectiveness criterion in EU legislation. This paper examines how the multiple benefits approach and the MICATool need to be shaped in order to be highly policy-relevant and enable a seamless, ubiquitous, and impactful use in policy-making.

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