Fraunhofer-Institut für System- und Innovationsforschung ISI

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Data protection impact assessments in practice

2022 , Friedewald, Michael , Schiering, Ina , Martin, Nicholas , Hallinan, Dara

In the context of the project "A Data Protection Impact Assessment (DPIA) Tool for Practical Use in Companies and Public Administration" an operationalization for Data Protection Impact Assessments was developed based on the approach of Forum Privatheit. This operationalization was tested and refined during twelve tests with startups, small- and medium sized enterprises, corporations and public bodies. This paper presents the operationalization and summarizes the experience from the tests.

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Attractiveness of electric vehicles under current tax and incentive schemes in Germany: A total cost of ownership calculation from the customer's perspective

2021 , Moll, Cornelius , Link, Steffen

Electric vehicles (EVs) have the potential to significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions from private motorized transport. While the registered number of EVs is increasing in Germany, their share of registrations still lags far behind that of conventional vehicles with internal combustion engines (ICEVs). In the literature, many studies compare the total costs of ownership (TCO) of EVs and ICEVs, as these have significant influence on customers' purchasing decisions and thus on vehicle market shares. However, these studies rely mostly on parameters derived under laboratory conditions instead of considering realistic data on technical (e.g. fuel consumption), behavioural (e.g. share of electric driving of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs)), economic parameters (e.g. insurance costs, prices for public (fast) charging) as well as financial incentives and taxes. Our research creates greater transparency for customers and policy makers alike with a detailed and customer-centric TCO calculation with the base years 2020 and 2030. We compare vehicles from different segments with conventional, hybrid and electric powertrains. Our analysis uses large parameter data sets sourced from the General German Automobile Association and retail price comparison portals, and we supplement these by meta-analyses of academic literature and market studies. We found that battery electric vehicles(BEVs) and PHEVs in the small and lower-medium segments are the cheapest options under current purchase price premiums for EVs in Germany. Long-range electrified SUVs are more expensive than conventional SUVs. Contrary to the widespread view in current literature, EVs are not necessarily the most economical option in a 2030 scenario in our analysis. If taxes and incentives are neglected, BEVs and PHEVs become even less attractive. This highlights the importance of carefully designed energy and vehicle taxes and purchase incentives for a successful market diffusion of EVs.

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Policy measures in the German heating sector: A review-based framework to study policy acceptance

2021 , Pröpper, Alexandra , Brugger, Heike , Eichhammer, Wolfgang

The development of innovative heating technologies and, above all, their diffusion is essential to reach national climate change mitigation targets in the building sector. Research has shown that primary energy use and CO2 emissions could be greatly reduced by replacing conventional heating technologies with renewable energy heating systems such as heat pumps or solar-thermal heating. The acceleration of the development and diffusion of innovative heating technologies requires appropriate policy measures. Those policies need to be effective and feasible. This in turn, is dependent on the acceptance of the policy by (parts of) the general public. As the building sector is prone to lock-in effects, public opposition to policies might inhibit necessary adoptions of efficient technologies. This means that the dimension of socio-political acceptance needs to be included into policy design, next to considerations on economic efficiency, and climate compatibility. While social acceptance has already been studied with regard to heating technologies, less attention has been paid on the acceptance of policy measures that would foster their deployment. The aim of this study is to derive a conceptual framework to study policy acceptance, in particular for the heating sector. Therefore, we undergo four steps. First, we synthesize existing research on factors that influence policy acceptance towards innovative low-carbon technologies. Second, we review existing frameworks to study policy acceptance (for innovative technologies). Third, we propose a conceptual framework to study acceptance for policies in the heating sector. Finally, we review policies in the heating sector in Germany with a focus on policy characteristics that might influence policy acceptance.

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Dynamische Stromtarife unter Berücksichtigung des Nutzendenverhaltens: Auswirkungen auf das Verteilnetz

2021 , Stute, Judith , Kühnbach, Matthias

Der voranschreitende Ausbau erneuerbarer Energien sowie der steigende Anteil an Sektorkopplungstechnologien in Haushalten (Elektrofahrzeuge, Wärmepumpen etc.) stellt die Energiewirtschaft und die Netzbetreiber vor neue Herausforderungen. Die Netzbelastung wird aufgrund der genannten Technologien in den kommenden Jahren zunehmen, was zu einem erhöhten Netzausbaubedarf führen kann. Eine Möglichkeit, dieser steigenden Netzbelastung zu begegnen ist es, flexibles Verbrauchsverhalten anzureizen, beispielsweise durch dynamische Stromtarife. Es stellt sich die Frage, ob die heute bereits angebotenen dynamischen Tarife attraktiv für Verbrauchende sind und inwieweit sie die Netzauslastung beeinflussen können. Wir zeigen, dass heutige dynamische Tarife in Verbindung mit einem Energiemanagementsystem attraktiv für Haushalte mit Flexibilitätsoptionen sind. Gleichzeitig steigt die maximal aus dem Netz bezogene Leistung dieser Haushalte bei Nutzung eines dynamischen Tarifs. Unsere Lastflussanalyse zeigt jedoch, dass aufgrund der Durchmischung der im Netzgebiet vorhandenen Tarife die Netzbelastung insgesamt sogar leicht reduziert werden kann. Die Ergebnisse zeigen somit, dass dynamische Tarife zu einer Durchmischung des Verbrauchendenverhaltens führen, das sich positiv auf das Niederspannungsnetz auswirken kann, auch wenn dynamische Tarife nicht explizit netzdienlich ausgestaltet sind.

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User engagement analysis for smart buildings based on social trend tracking

2021 , Jiao, Jiao , Brugger, Heike , Behrisch, Michael , Eichhammer, Wolfgang

The building sector is one of the major contributors to energy demand. Therefore, policy makers and the public are increasingly aware of the need to address global energy sustainability challenges in the building sector. With the growing prevalence of digitalization and Artificial Intelligence (AI), energy supplying infrastructures are undergoing profound changes by the emergence of smart buildings. Smart buildings aim to not only control devices and appliances inside, but can also create active micro-grids or virtual power plants by adapting to grid's conditions and communicating with other buildings. The great potential to provide flexibility for the integration of fluctuating renewable energy make smart buildings one of the central elements in the future energy system. Although smart building technologies are widely introduced and discussed in academia and industry, its services in real life are still rare. If smart buildings should unfold their potential contribution to the future energy system, one important barrier to overcome is the adoption of these technologies by households and investors. To analyse where the barriers in the adoption decision lie, we apply multiple visual analysis approaches. First, keyword extraction together with network visualization is used to identify the most trending sub-topics of smart building concept. Second, a text mining approach is applied to discover how smart building concepts diffuse over time and spatially based on scraped social media posts and online news. Third, this paper further analyses the user engagement degree in the diffusion of smart building concepts by user profile mining. The paper concludes with deriving recommendations on how (nudging) policies could be designed and how smart building technologies could be enhanced to increase user adaptation.

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Policy networks and power relations: What determines the success of social innovation in energy within cities?

2021 , Brunzema, Iska , Stadler, Maria , Brugger, Heike

Our ability to keep global temperature rise well below 2.0° degrees Celsius will depend not only on technological innovations but also on new ways of thinking, organizing, and doing. These new ways can be understood as social innovations in energy (SIE). SIE can be found on the energy supply side (e.g. energy cooperatives), on the energy demand side (e.g. community-based electricity/heat-storing options) as well as spanning across these classically distinct sides (e.g. prosumaging). SIE have the potential to substantially decrease energy demand and increase citizen engagement as well as acceptance for the energy transition in general and necessary measures in particular. Cities differ quite substantially in their success to implement local measures for global challenges and SIE might play a crucial part therein. We argue that policy networks within cities might be crucial to explain some of these differences. We therefore study how patterns of coordination in policy networks promote or inhibit SIE. A combination of online surveys and qualitative interviews was used to collect network data and different forms of interaction in the exemplary case of the city of Mannheim (Germany). The networks were assessed quantitatively by means of social network analysis. This was supplemented by a qualitative content analysis of the interviews conducted. It was found that not many main players are clustered at the junction of social innovation and the energy system, where they encourage SIE. The focal players interact mainly on the basis of power and trust structures and not on the basis of similar beliefs in the field of SIE. This impedes the emergence of SIEs because they have the potential to affect relationships and network structures and are therefore only promoted in a controlled manner within a limited scope. This work lays an important foundation for future work in which the policy network analysis will be expanded in a comparative manner across six European cities.

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Kreislaufwirtschaft für die Dekarbonisierung des Bausektors - Modellierung ausgewählter Stoffströme und dazugehöriger THG-Emissionen

2021 , Lotz, Meta Thurid , Herbst, Andrea , Rehfeldt, Matthias

Vor dem Hintergrund steigender Materialbedarfe und fortschreitender Klimakrise gewinnt die Kreislaufwirtschaft für die Treibhausgasemissionsreduktion auch politisch an Bedeutung. Die Umsetzung solcher Maßnahmen ist insbesondere in Grundstoffindustrien relevant, da diesen ein Großteil der Treibhausgasemissionen zugeordnet werden kann und deren Dekarbonisierung besonders herausfordernd ist. Da die Auswirkungen von Kreislaufwirtschaftsmaßnahmen sich entlang der gesamten Wertschöpfungskette zeigen, ist die Betrachtung typischer Endverwendungsgüter und zugehöriger Grundstoffe zielführend. In diesem Beitrag werden die mengen- und emissionsmäßig relevanten Grundstoffe Stahl und Zement für den Einsatz im Bausektor untersucht. Es erfolgt die Quantifizierung der Materialflüsse in der Europäischen Union für das Jahr 2019 durch eine flussgetriebene Materialflussmodellierung und die Abschätzung der theoretischen Treibhausgasminderungspotentiale beispielhafter Kreislaufwirtschaftsmaßnahmen. Ziel der Betrachtung ist das Schaffen einer methodischen Grundlage für die spätere Entwicklung prospektiver Dekarbonisierungsszenarien. Erste Ergebnisse zeigen, dass während die Zementproduktion ausschließlich für Endverwendungsgüter im Bausektor verwendet wird, können dem Bausektor rund 45 Prozent der Stahlfertigerzeugnisse zugeordnet werden. Für letzteres werden hauptsächlich Langprodukte eingesetzt, die zu einem Großteil aus recyceltem Material hergestellt werden. Die zusätzliche Modellierung von Maßnahmen zur Materialeffizienzsteigerung und Materialsubstitution zeigt, dass die Materialflussmodellierung geeignet ist, um Kreislaufwirtschaftsmaßnahmen abzubilden und diese auch einen nicht vernachlässigbaren Beitrag zur Reduktion der industriellen Treibhausgasemissionen leisten können.

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Energy efficiency first principle in the regional governance

2021 , Oikonomou, Vlasios , Eichhammer, Wolfgang

The Energy Efficiency First (E1st) principle balances demand and supply options, including energy efficiency at the supply side, in order to prioritise the least-expensive investments for the energy system from a whole society's point of view. It is an organising principle in which assessing the potential for energy savings and demand response becomes the first step in any energy-related decision. Up to now, the E1st principle has been discussed to some extent in the National Energy and Climate Plans; however, when it comes to the regional and local governance levels, this principle is not yet explicit in the public debate. Regional authorities elaborate own development plans that include decisions on energy investments in both supply and demand sectors.This paper carries out an analysis in four EU regional authorities testing how the E1ST principle can be applied in their regional planning processes. The primary energy planning elements in their cases are to decide on the types of investments (although regions partly do not invest directly in energy infrastructures) through setting up regional support schemes (such as grant schemes for building renovation, training programmes for building professionals and others) and to define the least-cost resource mix in all key policy areas involved (such as power, gas and heating sectors, and balancing energy demand and supply side investments). The allocation of the regional budget to these support schemes is also linked to the design of the Regional Operational Programs, where the E1st principle can be put in place. The paper describes a decision support process for the four regions to operationalize the E1st principle in practice, analysing regional planning cycles and procedures, taking into account multilevel governance aspects and relevant inputs from regional stakeholders.

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Electricity consumption of network-connected devices in the residential sector in Germany

2021 , Suzaly, Nashua , Mandel, Tim , Brugger, Heike

Digitalization in the residential sector is growing rapidly with the introduction of more smart devices and the development of the Internet of Things. To investigate the electricity consumption of household appliances from increasing network-connected devices, a bottom-up modelling approach is used. The FORECAST-Residential model by Fraunhofer ISI was developed to calculate the residential energy consumption based on of the Bass model in product growth and consumer purchases. The model is extended in this study to calculate upstream energy use, defined as the energy required by data centres and access network efficiency in transferring data. The electricity consumption of network-connected devices themselves is also extended in the model by distinguishing devices connected to the internet and determining the duration of their connected usage. The consumption of different operation states is investigated by further separating operation and standby usage into conventional and network-connected usage. To determine the influence of different variables on the future development of energy consumption due to network-connected devices, several exploratory scenarios are simulated, covering policymaking, smart device purchases, user behaviour, and data centre efficiencies. The results show that the electricity consumption of devices can be strongly influenced by policies such as the European eco-design directive for household appliances. The conventional operation and network-connected standby consumption are the states with highest electricity consumption, consuming 73% and 17% of electricity in the year 2035 respectively. The other two investigated states: conventional standby and network-connected active consumed 6% and 4% respectively. Network-connected standby consumption is revealed to be the second most energy consumption mode due to standby mode of increasing smart devices labelled as being connected to the internet while on standby. Overall, the results indicate that the additional energy demand of network-connected devices and their upstream energy demand is relatively low. This reveals a large potential for smart devices to assist in achieving Germany's climate-neutrality target in the energy transition.

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Interaction of energy storage technologies and synthetic fuels in long-term decarbonization scenarios

2021 , Böttger, Diana , Kost, Christoph , Wrede, Daniel , Lux, Benjamin , Fleiter, Tobias , Pfluger, Benjamin , Heilig, Judith , Gerhardt, Norman , Haendel, Michael

With the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement, the international community has reaffirmed its commitment to tackle anthropogenic climate change with the goal of limiting the global average temperature increase below 1.5 °C, but to a maximum of 2 °C above pre-industrial levels. Against this background, we examine scenarios for a complete decarbonisation of the European energy supply. Since such scenarios are based on a high expansion of weather-dependent renewable energy sources, the question arises, which flexible technologies are necessary to balance supply and demand in such energy systems. In this paper, a scenario analysis shows which capacity or volume of energy storage, power interconnectors and synthetic fuels are needed in decarbonization scenarios. To address this research question three different energy system models are applied. These models cover Europe and Germany, respectively, and are able to explain different results of the single models based of the corresponding model characteristics. The paper concludes that the power sector is able to cover a considerable share of the energy demand in the heat and transport sector with the help of flexible sector coupling technologies such as heat pumps and electric mobility. All considered models manage to find solutions for a deep decarbonization if flexibility and storage option are available.

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