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PublicationAuctions for Renewable Energy Support II - First insights and results of the Horizon2020 project AURES II( 2021)
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PublicationDatabase tools for policy development - presenting building stock renovation programme potentials through Energy Saving Cost Curves( 2016)The use of buildings databases has an enormous potential to inform decision-making in order to decarbonize the building stock by 2050. This paper showcases the potential of databases and, by using the example of Germany, it presents a methodology for appraising the economic and energy reduction outcomes of building renovation policies. A dynamic bottom-up simulation model, the Invert/EE-Lab, evaluates the effects of three scenarios of economic and regulatory incentives for three different renovation packages oriented towards the standards defined by the German building code (EnEV) as well as the support programmes of the Federal Development Bank (KfW). Results are presented visually through Energy Saving Cost Curves which communicate the energy savings and avoided energy costs following renovation programmes of the German building stock. The results show that under a range of realistic scenarios to 2030, the total economic energy saving potentials range from 60 to 170 TWh/y, and correspond to financial savings that range from 1.2 to 6.2 bne/y. Energy Saving Cost Curves provide a means to compare the impact of different policy options from the perspective of the investor for different building categories, and can thereby feed directly into the design of renovation strategies -whether at national, regional or city level- taking into consideration economic parameters ranging from subsidies and energy prices, to transaction costs, learning curves and discount rates.
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PublicationA concept to assess the costs and benefits of renewable energy use and distributional effects among actors: The example of Germany( 2016)
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PublicationEnergy saving cost curves as a tool for policy development - case study of the German building stock( 2016)The building sector within the EU accounts for about 40% of final energy use and one-third of greenhouse gas emissions. Buildings therefore should play an important role in meeting the EU climate targets. Using the example of Germany, the largest economy of the EU, this paper sets out the methodology for appraising the contribution that comprehensive building renovations, comprising both fabric insulation and heating system upgrades, can make towards decreasing energy use. A dynamic bottom-up simulation model, the Invert/EE-Lab model, evaluates the effects of three scenarios of economic and regulatory incentives for three different renovation packages oriented towards the standards defined by the German building code (EnEv) as well as the support programmes of the KfW development bank. Results are presented visually through Energy Saving Cost Curves which communicate the monetary costs (or savings) and the energy savings for 16 building categories that represent the entirety of the German building stock. The Energy Saving Cost Curves developed in this paper represent the investors' perspective to 2030. Under the Business As Usual scenario, the total cost effective energy savings potential amounts to 60 TWh/a, avoids 1.1 bne/a in energy costs, and comprises most of the non-residential building categories and the oldest residential buildings built before 1948. Increasing the level of subsidy in the High Subsidy scenario results in an almost doubling of cost-effective savings to 118 TWh/a while increasing energy cost savings to 1.9 bne/a. Energy Saving Cost Curves provide a means to compare the impact of different policy options from the perspective of the investor for different building categories, and can thereby feed directly into the design of renovation strategies -whether at national, regional or city level- under a wide variety of conditions and taking into consideration economic parameters ranging from subsidies and energy prices, to transaction costs, learning curves and discount rates.
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PublicationA prospective assessment of costs and benefits of renewable energy use in the European Union( 2016)
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PublicationRenewable energy deployment in Europe up to 2030 and the aim of a triple dividend( 2016)
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PublicationEvaluating the current EU energy efficiency policy framework and its impact until 2020 and 2030 (1-473-15) (1-473-15)( 2015)
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PublicationWhat drives the impact of future support policies for energy efficiency in buildings?( 2015)Policy makers face the challenge to design and test support policies for nearly zero energy buildings (nZEB) - and in general energy efficiency policies - in a real-life laboratory. Model based scenarios are expected to reduce the uncertainties. However, rather than trying to exactly predict the future or the impact of a certain instrument, the core objective is to understand the drivers affecting the impact of policies on future energy demand in buildings. We will draw nearer to this objective by a comparative analysis of policy scenarios in 9 EU Member States (MSs) and EU-28 as a whole. Thus, the key research questions of this paper are: (1) What impact on energy demand, CO2-emissions and public costs do various policies trigger in scenarios for EU MSs and the EU-28? (2) What drives the differences between the scenarios in various countries and policy settings? (3) How do the policies compare in terms of their consistency with long-term targets of energy savings and CO2-reductions? We build this research on three policy sets which were developed in the IEE project ENTRANZE in a discussion process with policy makers: one policy set reflecting current policy instruments and two others with more innovative and ambitious approaches. The potential effect of these policy sets was analysed with the bottom-up model Invert/EE-Lab. The model is based on a disaggregated description of the building stock, and its building and HVAC components. The investment decision for various retrofit measures and HVAC systems is modelled under consideration of the characteristics of various country specific agent groups (e.g. low-income households, elderly people, ownership types etc). The results show a wide range of energy savings for space heating, hot water, cooling and lighting of less than 10% to more than 30% from 2008-2030. Remarkably, the highest energy savings were not achieved in those scenarios and countries with the highest public expenses. It turns out that at least a minimum level of regulatory measures increasing ""nZEB renovation"" activities and renewable heating (RES-H) systems should be added to economic incentives and strong supply - side measures
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PublicationAssessing the impact of the EU Ecodesign Directive on a member state level( 2015)
