Fraunhofer-Institut für System- und Innovationsforschung ISI

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A bottom-up estimation of heating and cooling demand in the European industry

2016 , Rehfeldt, Matthias , Rohde, Clemens , Fleiter, Tobias , Toro, Felipe , Reitze, Felix

Energy balances, e.g. the one provided by Eurostat, are usually aggregated at the level of subsector and energy carrier. In the context of transformation of energy systems and policies targeting energy efficiency as well as security of supply, more detailed information about the end-uses of energy is needed. While heating and cooling makes up for half the energy demand of the EU28 plus Norway, Switzerland, Iceland (EU28+3), balances aligned to Eurostat for the industrial sector, including process heat temperature level and end-use, are not available today. Here we present a methodology to disaggregate Eurostat's energy balance for the industrial sector and add these dimensions. Results show that though a stable overall pattern can be observed, considerable differences among countries in terms of temperature distribution, energy carrier use and their cross-references exist. These differences are mainly caused by heterogeneous economic structures of the countries in scope, highlighting that approaches on process level yield more differentiated results, which subsector level approaches cannot. We calculate the EU28+3 industrial process heating demand to 1,035 TWh, 706 TWh and 228 TWh at the respective temperature levels >500 °C (e.g. iron and steel production), 100-500 °C (e.g. steam use in chemical industry)and 100 °C (e.g. food industry). We expect the results presented here to contribute to policy design regarding energy efficiency and security of supply, by providing a deeper insight in the requirements and particularities of industrial heat demand.

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Scenario based evaluation of policies addressing the German heating and cooling sector: A bottom-up modeling approach integrating buildings, industry and district heating

2013 , Steinbach, Jan , Kranzl, Lukas , Müller, Andreas , Hummel, Marcus , Kockat, Judit , Herbst, Andrea , Toro, Felipe , Reitze, Felix , Jochem, Eberhard , Fette, Max , Schulz, Wolfgang , Bürger, Veit

Energy demand for heating and cooling represents the largest energy use sector in Germany. Measures to enhance energy efficiency of buildings and industry processes are often considered as a cost-effective opportunity to reduce energy demand and carbon dioxide emissions. Nevertheless, realized improvements in energy efficiency have failed to live up to expectations in the past few years considering its attributed potential; raising the question if the targets regarding energy efficiency and renewable heating and cooling set by the German government are still feasible. This paper presents a variety of scenarios for the German heating and cooling sector up to 2020 using an exploratory modeling approach. Each scenario considers a certain set of different policy instruments which are analyzed by integrating four different techno-economic bottom-up sector models - INVERT/EE-Lab, Forecast-ProcIndustry, ProcServ and District heating/CHP model. The latter considers different building and settlement types to calculate the potential of district heating and CHP technologies subject to energy load of industry processes and buildings. The dynamic simulation model INVERT/EE-Lab is applied to simulate investment decisions in energy efficiency measures and evaluate different support schemes in the building sector. Forecast-ProcIndustry and ProcServ describes the energy demand of process heating and cooling in industry and the service sector, respectively.

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