Fraunhofer-Institut für System- und Innovationsforschung ISI

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  • Publication
    Current and future roles of the automotive and ICT sectoral systems in autonomous driving - Using the innovation system approach to assess value chain transformation
    ( 2024)
    Grimm, Anna orcid-logo
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    Walz, Rainer orcid-logo
    In this paper, we assess the current and future roles of the automotive and the information and communication technology (ICT) sectoral systems in the provision of autonomous driving and draw conclusions on the potential configuration of the corresponding value chains. We approach the question of value chain transformation from an innovation system perspective, combining sectoral, national and technological perspectives on innovation systems. We introduce a supplementary function at the intersection of the sectoral and technological innovation systems that describes the interactions between the automotive and the ICT system. By choosing indicators that allow for the sectoral and national differentiation of activities, we are able to identify differences and similarities in engagement between the automotive and ICT sectors and countries. Furthermore, we find various and changing types of interactions and relationships, such as competition, cooperation or spill-over, between the sectoral systems. Our findings underline the relevance of contextual factors to the dynamics and design of innovation systems, based on which we propose an approach for integrating different perspectives into one study. We find the strength of the innovation system perspective in its structuring and holistic characteristics and demonstrate its applicability to the assessment of value chain transformation.
  • Publication
    Empirical evidence on discrimination in multi-technology renewable energy auctions in Europe
    ( 2024)
    Buschle, Julius
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    Anatolitis, Vasilios orcid-logo
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    Plötz, Patrick orcid-logo
    Auctions are a widely used policy instrument to support the deployment of renewable energies (RE). Yet, their complex design raises concerns about explicitly or implicitly discriminatory effects against particular technologies. Such discriminatory effects would distort fair competition, reduce economic efficiency, and potentially violate European Union law. Several studies analysed discriminatory auction design from a theoretical and simulation perspective but actual empirical evidence is limited. Here, we demonstrate the existence of technology discrimination in European RE auctions empirically. We apply a fractional logit model to empirically measure the impact of various auction design elements on the success of two technologies, solar PV and onshore wind, based on 57 European multi-technology RE auctions from 2011-2021. Our results confirm the existence of discriminatory effects of several auction design elements in RE auctions, such as installation size restriction, support duration, realisation period, ceiling price, and financial prequalification. The results are stable against various robustness checks such as varying the countries included, the time frame, and the composition of the regions controlled for. Our findings advance the understanding of explicitly and implicitly discriminatory effects against particular technologies in multi-technology auctions and we propose steps to reduce technology discrimination in future multi-technology RE auctions.
  • Publication
    The race between hydrogen and heat pumps for space and water heating: A model-based scenario analysis
    ( 2024)
    Billerbeck, Anna orcid-logo
    ;
    Kiefer, Christoph P. orcid-logo
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    Winkler, Jenny
    ;
    Bernath, Christiane orcid-logo
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    Sensfuß, Frank
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    Kranzl, Lukas
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    Müller, Andreas
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    Ragwitz, Mario
    This paper analyses different levels and means of the electrification of space and hot water heating using an explorative modelling approach. The analysis provides guidance to the ongoing discussion on favourable pathways for heating buildings and the role of secondary energy carriers such as hydrogen or synthetic fuels. In total, 12 different scenarios were modelled with decarbonisation pathways until 2050, which cover all 27 member states of the European Union. Two highly detailed optimisation models were combined to cover the building stock and the upstream energy supply sector. The analysis shows that decarbonisation pathways for space and water heating based on large shares of heat pumps have at least 11% lower system costs in 2050 than pathways with large shares of hydrogen or synthetic fuels. This translates into system cost savings of around €70 bn. Heat pumps are cost-efficient in decentralised systems and in centralised district heating systems. Hence, heat pumps should be the favoured option to achieve a cost-optimal solution for heating buildings. Accordingly, the paper makes a novel and significant contribution to understanding suitable and cost-efficient decarbonisation pathways for space and hot water heating via electrification. The results of the paper can provide robust guidance for policymakers.
  • Publication
    Perception of district heating in Europe: A deep dive into influencing factors and the role of regulation
    ( 2024)
    Billerbeck, Anna orcid-logo
    ;
    Breitschopf, Barbara orcid-logo
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    Preuß, Sabine orcid-logo
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    Winkler, Jenny
    ;
    Ragwitz, Mario
    ;
    Keles, Dogan
    To increase the deployment of district heating in line with European targets, there is a need to understand consumer perceptions and the role of regulations. Therefore, this paper focuses on consumer perceptions of district heating and analyses the influencing factors. The analysis uses data from an online survey with 4388 participants from nine European countries. In particular, the paper discusses the impact of socio-demographic factors, attitudes and regulations on the perception of district heating. Statistical analyses show that respondents from Denmark and Sweden have the most positive perception, while respondents from Lithuania and the Netherlands have a less positive perception of district heating. In addition, the results indicate that respondents from countries with no mandatory connection, liberalised price regulation and mainly public ownership seem to have a more positive perception of district heating, higher satisfaction when using district heating and a more positive rating of their heating price than those from countries with mandatory connection, regulated prices and a more mixed ownership structure. Overall, the paper provides a first overview of possible factors influencing the perception of district heating and indicates that the mix of appropriate regulations and, in particular, their combined impact, could play an important role in perception.
  • Publication
    # 6_Wasserstofftransport - Ein Henne-Ei-Problem?
    ( 2023-11-23)
    Pieton, Natalia orcid-logo
    ;
    Herbst, Andrea
    ;
    Ragwitz, Mario
    Mario ist Professor an der BTU und befasst sich als Leiter der Fraunhofer Einrichtung für Energieinfrastrukturen und Geothermie mit der Rolle von Wasserstoff im Energiesystem. Dabei untersucht er, wie wir Wasserstoff in der Zukunft in hohen Mengen in unterschiedlichen chemischen oder physikalischen Zuständen über kurze und lange Distanzen transportieren und importieren können. Da die Errichtung von Transportinfrastrukturen jedoch eine gewisse Wasserstoffnachfrage und -dargebot voraussetzen, muss er diese Bereiche mitdenken. Sollen wir zuerst die Wasserstoffproduktion, die Wasserstoffabnahmeanlagen oder gar die Infrastrukturen errichten? Und wie soll nun der grüne Wasserstoff nach Deutschland kommen? Hört rein bei einer spannenden Folge, in der wir das Henne-Ei-Problem zu Wasserstoff diskutieren.
  • Publication
    # 5_Der Faktor Mensch: Die Rolle von Akteuren und Akzeptanz im Aufbau einer globalen grünen Wasserstoffwirtschaft
    ( 2023-07-31)
    Pieton, Natalia orcid-logo
    ;
    Herbst, Andrea
    ;
    Kantel, Anne
    Anne untersucht gemeinsamen mit anderen Kolleg:innen am ISI die Rolle von Stakeholder-Akzeptanz von Wasserstofftechnologien im Aufbau einer globalen grünen Wasserstoffwirtschaft: Wie nehmen Stakeholder (Interessengruppen) aus Politik, Industrie und Gesellschaft in Deutschland und potentiellen Partnerländern den Auf- und Ausbau einer grünen Wasserstoffwirtschaft wahr? Welche Chancen und Herausforderungen stellen sich für die Ausgestaltung nachhaltiger und gerechter internationaler Wasserstoffpartnerschaften zwischen Deutschland und Ländern des Globalen Südens? Und wieso ist es überhaupt interessant sich mit Fragen rund um Akteure und Akzeptanz zu beschäftigten? Hört rein in eine neue Episode unserer Podcastreihe!
  • Publication
    National energy demand projections using LEAP and Excel
    ( 2023-07-28)
    Müller, Viktor Paul orcid-logo
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    Pieton, Natalia orcid-logo
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    Lenivova, Veronika orcid-logo
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    Abdel-Khalek, Hazem
    ;
    Sinha, Mohammad
    The projections are based on historic energy carrier consumptions by Enerdata (© Enerdata 2022), activity variables and energy intensities collected from the BIG 5 energy system studies (© Enerdata 2022; ARIADNE 2022; BDI 2021; dena 2021; Prognos et al. 2021; Sensfuß 2021) and further literature. The methodology for the sectoral demand estimations is described in detail in (Pieton et al. 2023) and HYPAT results on Brazil are in preparation for publication.
  • Publication
    # 4_Was ist an nachhaltigem grünem Wasserstoff so wichtig?
    ( 2023-06-12)
    Pieton, Natalia orcid-logo
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    Herbst, Andrea
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    Thomann, Jana orcid-logo
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    Riemer, Matia
    Jana und Matia vom Fraunhofer ISI forschen dazu, welche Nachhaltigkeitskriterien Wasserstoff erfüllen muss, um einen Beitrag zum Klimaschutz zu leisten. Unsere Gäste erklären uns, warum auch "grüner" Wasserstoff nicht zwangsläufig klimaneutral ist und was es mit der Wasserstoffzertifizierung auf sich hat. Wo hier noch Herausforderungen für den Wasserstoffmarkthochlauf sind, erfahrt ihr in Folge 4 unserer Podcastreihe.
  • Publication
    # 3_Was haben die Entwicklungsländer im globalen Süden davon?
    ( 2023-05-24)
    Pieton, Natalia orcid-logo
    ;
    Herbst, Andrea
    ;
    Strohmaier, Rita
    ;
    Stamm, Andreas
    Andreas und Rita vom IDOS führen derzeit mit Kolleg:innen vertiefende Studien zu einer Reihe von potenziellen Partnerländern für Deutschland im Wasserstoffhandel durch. Im Fokus ihrer Arbeit steht die Frage: Was bringt Ländern im Globalen Süden der Export von Wasserstoff und Syntheseprodukten? Ihre bisherige Einschätzung: Vor allem dann etwas, wenn sie Wasserstoff auch als Teil ihrer Klimaziele und für die eigene wirtschaftliche Entwicklung nutzen. Was das heißt und wo die Herausforderungen sind, gehen wir in Folge 3 nach.
  • Publication
    How to roadmap? Basics and insights from German industry
    ( 2023-05-23)
    Kirstgen, Anna orcid-logo
    ;
    Aydemir, Ali orcid-logo
    Dies sind die Präsentationsfolien eines Vortrags, der auf der Konferenz "Energy Future in Industry 2023" gehalten wurde, die vom 9. bis 11. Mai 2023 in Götheburg stattfand. Im ersten Teil des Vortrags wurden Grundlagen des Roadmapping vorgestellt. Im zweiten Teil wurde das Thema anhand eines Beispiels veranschaulicht. Hierzu wurden Erfahrungen aus einem Projekt für das Umweltbundesamt herangezogen, bei dem es um die Erstellung von Eckpunkten für eine Roadmap zur Dekarbonisierung der Stahlindustrie ging.