Fraunhofer-Institut für System- und Innovationsforschung ISI

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Now showing 1 - 10 of 17
  • Publication
    European Hydrogen Infrastructure Planning
    ( 2024)
    Alibas, Sirin orcid-logo
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    Ausfelder, Florian
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    Ditz, Daniel
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    Ebner, Michael
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    Engwerth, Veronika
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    Fleiter, Tobias
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    Fragoso García, Joshua
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    Genge, Lucien
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    Greitzer, Maria
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    Haas, Sofia
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    Haendel, Michael
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    Hank, Christoph
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    Hauser, Philipp
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    Heneka, Maximilian
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    Heineken, Wolfram
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    Hildebrand, Jan
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    Isik, Volkan
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    Köppel, Wolfgang
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    Harper, Ryan
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    Jahn, Matthias
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    Klaassen, Bernhard
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    Kneiske, Tanja Manuela
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    Malzkuhn, Sabine
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    Kuzyaka, Berkan
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    Mielich, Tim
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    Lux, Benjamin orcid-logo
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    Maghnam, Ammar
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    Müsgens, Felix
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    Mendler, Friedrich
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    Pleier, Amanda
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    Müller-Kirchenbauer, Joachim
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    Isbert, Anne-Marie
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    Ruprecht, David
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    Sadat-Razavi, Pantea
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    Neuner, Felix
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    Pfluger, Benjamin
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    Mohr, Stephan
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    Ragwitz, Mario
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    Scheffler, Marcel
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    Solomon, Mithran Daniel
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    Voglstätter, Christopher
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    Weißenburger, Bastian orcid-logo
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    Ausfelder, Florian
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    Ragwitz, Mario
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    Förster, My Yen
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    Nolden, Christoph orcid-logo
    The white paper was developed by a selected authorship of the TransHyDE Project System Analysis. The contents of the TransHyDE publications are produced in the project independently of the Federal Ministry of Education and Research.
  • Publication
    The race between hydrogen and heat pumps for space and water heating: A model-based scenario analysis
    ( 2024)
    Billerbeck, Anna orcid-logo
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    Kiefer, Christoph P. orcid-logo
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    Winkler, Jenny
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    Bernath, Christiane orcid-logo
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    Sensfuß, Frank
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    Kranzl, Lukas
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    Müller, Andreas
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    Ragwitz, Mario
    This paper analyses different levels and means of the electrification of space and hot water heating using an explorative modelling approach. The analysis provides guidance to the ongoing discussion on favourable pathways for heating buildings and the role of secondary energy carriers such as hydrogen or synthetic fuels. In total, 12 different scenarios were modelled with decarbonisation pathways until 2050, which cover all 27 member states of the European Union. Two highly detailed optimisation models were combined to cover the building stock and the upstream energy supply sector. The analysis shows that decarbonisation pathways for space and water heating based on large shares of heat pumps have at least 11% lower system costs in 2050 than pathways with large shares of hydrogen or synthetic fuels. This translates into system cost savings of around €70 bn. Heat pumps are cost-efficient in decentralised systems and in centralised district heating systems. Hence, heat pumps should be the favoured option to achieve a cost-optimal solution for heating buildings. Accordingly, the paper makes a novel and significant contribution to understanding suitable and cost-efficient decarbonisation pathways for space and hot water heating via electrification. The results of the paper can provide robust guidance for policymakers.
  • Publication
    Implications of hydrogen import prices for the German energy system in a model-comparison experiment
    ( 2024)
    Schmitz, Richard
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    Brandes, Julian
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    Nolte, Hannah
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    Kost, Christoph
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    Lux, Benjamin orcid-logo
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    Haendel, Michael
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    Held, Anne
    With its ability to store and transport energy without releasing greenhouse gases, hydrogen is considered an important driver for the decarbonisation of energy systems. As future hydrogen import prices from global markets are subject to large uncertainties, it is unclear what impact different hydrogen and derivative import prices will have on the future German energy system. To answer that research question, this paper explores the impact of three different import price scenarios for hydrogen and its derivatives on the German energy system in a climate-neutral setting for Europe in 2045 using three different energy system models. The analysis shows that the quantities of electricity generated as well as the installed capacities for electricity generation and electrolysis increase as the hydrogen import price rises. However, the resulting differences between the import price scenarios vary across the models. The results further indicate that domestic German (and European) hydrogen production is often cost-efficient.
  • Publication
    Potentials and levels for the electrification of space heating in buildings. Final report
    (Publications Office of the European Union, 2023)
    Dröscher, Tom
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    Ladermann, Alexander
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    Maurer, Christoph
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    Tersteegen, Bernd
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    Willemsen, Sebastian
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    Billerbeck, Anna orcid-logo
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    Müller, Andreas
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    Kotek, Peter
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    Tóth, Borbála
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    Kiefer, Christoph orcid-logo
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    Winkler, Jenny
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    Bernath, Christiane orcid-logo
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    Kranzl, Lukas
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    Sensfuß, Frank
    For reaching the EU’s climate goals the space heating sector is of exceptionally high relevance. Heating and cooling accounts for 50% of the EU final energy consumption; approximately 75% of the heat demand is covered from fossil fuels and around 60% of the overall heat demand is consumed in buildings. These numbers illustrate that decarbonising the space heating sector is a crucial factor for reaching greenhouse gas neutrality in the EU by 2050. Several studies and scenarios point to electrification as a main solution for decarbonisation of space heating. However, there are different possible implementations for electrification of heat: One option is direct electrification, in particular by installing decentral heat pumps in buildings or central heat pumps in district heating and, partially, direct electric boilers. Another option is indirect electrification based on synthetic energy carries produced from electricity from renewable energy sources (RES-E), namely hydrogen or e-fuels (in particular synthetic methane). The objective of this study is to quantitatively analyse different possible levels of these various ways of direct and indirect electrification. The analysis looks at such scenarios from a technical and economic perspective. As a result the scenario with the lowest costs (i.e. a cost-effective level of direct and indirect electrification) is identified and barriers (from today’s viewpoint) for realising this cost-effective level are discussed. For these analyses a modelling framework consisting of eight interacting sector models was applied covering the building stock, the energy supply (power, synthetic energy carriers, district heat) sector and infrastructures (electricity and gaseous energy carriers). The (cost) optimisation and simulation models cover all EU-27 member states (MS) with a high spatial, temporal and technological resolution. Due to close interaction of the heating sector with other energy sectors the modelling framework covered not only space heating but the whole European energy system also including e.g. the energy demand of the transport sector and industry. The modelling covers the time period up to 2050, where greenhouse gas neutrality is to be reached in the EU. Even though the year 2050 is in the focus of this study, the time steps in between were modelled as well. At the core of the scenario design is a set of in total 12 scenarios each reflecting a particular target for one energy carrier in terms “share of heated floor area” (e.g. the scenario “direct electrification 60%” defines a scenario in which 60% of the heated floor area in all MS has to be heated by direct electric heating system; the mix of heating technologies for the remaining 40% were optimised by the building stock model).
  • Publication
    Export Potentials of Green Hydrogen - Methodology for a Techno-Economic Assessment
    (Fraunhofer ISI, 2023)
    Pieton, Natalia orcid-logo
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    Abdel-Khalek, Hazem
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    Graf, Marieke Emilie Anna orcid-logo
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    Drechsler, Björn
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    Lenivova, Veronika orcid-logo
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    Nolden, Christoph orcid-logo
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    Bergup, Emily Felicitas
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    Sinha, Mohammad
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    Fragoso García, Joshua
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    Franke, Katja
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    Kleinschmitt, Christoph
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    Müller, Viktor Paul orcid-logo
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    Wietschel, Martin
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    Holst, Marius
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    Weise, Friedrich
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    Voglstätter, Christopher
    This working paper describes the quantitative and model-based methodology used in HYPAT to assess hydrogen and Power-to-X (PtX) export potentials in the countries Morocco, Ukraine, Namibia, Turkey, United Arab Emirates, Kenya, Chile, Canada, Brazil, and New Zealand. The results of the techno-economic assessment are further used as a basis for a global hydrogen and PtX atlas, and as an indication of the price development of hydrogen and PtX.
  • Publication
    Price-elastic demand for hydrogen in Germany - Methodology and results
    (Fraunhofer ISI, 2023)
    Wietschel, Martin
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    Weißenburger, Bastian orcid-logo
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    Rehfeldt, Matthias orcid-logo
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    Lux, Benjamin orcid-logo
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    Zheng, Lin orcid-logo
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    Meier, Jonas
    Hydrogen is one of the pillars of the energy transition. However, there is still uncertainty about its specific applications and the scope of hydrogen use. The working paper starts here and focuses on the price-elastic demand for hydrogen in sectors such as industry, transport and energy conversion in Germany. Detailed simulation models map alternative options for reaching the climate goals and the potential role of hydrogen.
  • Publication
    Ukrainian Hydrogen Export Potential: Opportunities and Challenges in the Light of the Ongoing War
    (Fraunhofer ISI, 2023)
    Sukurova, Natalia
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    Wietschel, Martin
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    Fragoso García, Joshua
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    Müller, Viktor Paul orcid-logo
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    Franke, Katja
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    Kantel, Anne
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    Graf, Marieke Emilie Anna orcid-logo
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    Jalbout, Eddy
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    Pieton, Natalia orcid-logo
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    Abdel-Khalek, Hazem
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    Bergup, Emily
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    Weise, Friedrich
    The purpose of the working paper is to study the hydrogen export potential of Ukraine, including the opportunities and challenges in light of the ongoing war, based on the analyses of national and international sources as well as the modeling and calculations conducted within the HYPAT project. The carried-out analysis of the current trends and developments of the hydrogen economy in Ukraine shows that de-spite the ongoing war, the EU remains interested in Ukraine as a potential future hy-drogen supplier. Techno-economic assessment reveals the following: green steel could become an important export product in the future, generating additional reve-nues in the country; Ukraine has a well-established infrastructure for exporting hydro-gen and Power-to-X products to Western Europe via pipelines and seaports, but the repurposing of this infrastructure needs to be further investigated; important energy infrastructures and land for potential renewable energy deployment are currently oc-cupied by the Russian military. It is determined that the war's uncertain duration in-creases the risks of investing in developing the large RE potential in Ukraine so, low-cost RE might only be sufficient to cover domestic demand. The following opportuni-ties and obstacles are highlighted: the development of a hydrogen economy can bring socio-political advantages, but the large-scale hydrogen production in Ukraine might be limited due to water scarcity and competitive water use for the agricultural sector and could imply higher energy costs for households.
  • Publication
    Pathways to a near carbon-neutral German industry sector by 2045: A model-based scenario comparison and recommendations for action
    ( 2022)
    Herbst, Andrea
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    Fleiter, Tobias
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    Rehfeldt, Matthias orcid-logo
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    Neuwirth, Marius orcid-logo
    In 2018, emissions from the industrial sector in Germany amounted to around 190 million tons of CO2 equivalents, the majority of which were caused by companies in energy-intensive industries. According to Germany’s reduction target for this sector, these emissions must fall to 118 million metric tons by 2030. Its high dependence on fossil fuels, technical restrictions and hardly avoidable process emissions pose major challenges for the sector. In order to achieve near climate-neutrality in 2045, these challenges require a profound transformation in the basic materials industries. This contribution presents the results of a comprehensive bottom-up assessment comparing four technology pathways to a near carbon-neutral German industry sector until 2045. The analysis was carried out using the bottom-up energy demand model FORECAST, which is characterized by a high degree of technology and process detail. Its results show that the goal of a nearly carbon-neutral industrial sector in 2045 is possible, but will require enormous efforts. Large amounts of CO2-neutral secondary energy carriers like electricity and hydrogen will be needed in addition to improvements in material and energy efficiency. Depending on the technology focus, the amount of electricity used nearly doubles from 226 TWh up to 413 TWh in 2045. In the case of a “hydrogen economy,” the industrial use of hydrogen as a feedstock and as an energy source increases up to 342 TWh in 2045. The time horizon to 2030 is crucial if the transition to a near climate-neutral industry sector is to succeed by 2045. It must be possible to scale up CO2-neutral processes from the pilot and demonstration stage to industrial level by 2030 and enable their economic operation. This contribution therefore also places particular emphasis on the period up to 2030 and discusses those options for action in this time frame which have proved to be robust in several scenarios. The need for additional action is also elaborated based on the scenario results.
  • Publication
    Future hydrogen demands from industry transition towards 2030 - a site-specific bottom-up assessment for North-Western Europe
    ( 2022)
    Neuwirth, Marius orcid-logo
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    Fleiter, Tobias
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    Khanra, Manish orcid-logo
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    Shinde, Manoj
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    Jovicic, Milkica
    Industry decarbonisation is currently high on the agenda in the EU and its member states, as this sector has substantial shares in overall GHG emissions while it faces serious challenges to decarbonise. Hydrogen based on renewable electricity can have a key role in the transition towards a CO2-neutral industrial production since its use as an energy carrier as well as a feedstock in various industrial process routes is promising. To scale-up hydrogen infrastructure in North-West Europe, a deep systemic understanding with a detailed spatial perspective is required. With industry representing a high-priority sector for the use of CO2-neutral hydrogen, a site-specific analysis of hydrogen demands from industry is essential. Here, we conduct an analysis of the potential demand of hydrogen for the industrial transition in North-West Europe (Netherlands, north-west Germany, Belgium, northern France, Luxembourg). The region is a centre of the European heavy industry value chain and is seen as a pioneer region for industry transition. Our method is based on a techno-economic scenario approach that considers 515 individual industrial plants allocated to 185 sites. We calculate transformation pathways based on re-investment cycles and plant age. We present the resulting hydrogen demands by sector and spatially distributed at the level of sites and NUTS3 regions. Limiting the use of hydrogen to feedstocks and high-temperature process heat, we calculate a total technical demand potential of about 250 TWh/a based on 180 individual plants. Considering re-investment cycles and plants due for re-investment until 2030 shows a potential hydrogen demand of 55 TWh/a. Aggregating the hydrogen demand by NUTS3 region, we identify 12 regions with a total technical demand potential of 10 TWh/a or more mainly concentrating around the large chemical and steel clusters. The resulting data set is available for download and can be used in energy-systems studies to improve the resolution of industry sector.
  • Publication
    Modelling pathways towards a climate-neutral EU industry sector
    ( 2022)
    Al-Dabbas, Khaled
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    Fleiter, Tobias
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    Neuwirth, Marius orcid-logo
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    Rehfeldt, Matthias orcid-logo
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    Herbst, Andrea
    To attain climate neutrality by 2050, the European industry must achieve significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. The EU’s Green Deal with the new 55 % reduction target by 2030 and the ‘Fit for 55’ package set the frame for the transition. The Fit-For-55 package is accompanied by an impact assessment that includes scenario analyses for the development of the EU energy system until 2030. A perspective Beyond 2030 is not published, but essential to understand the need to achieve climate neutrality by 2050. Here, we develop two scenarios for the industry sector to benchmark the scenarios published by the EU. We extend our scenarios towards 2050. One scenario reflects current policies (not yet including the proposed fit-for-55 package) and a second scenario that is in line with meeting climate neutrality by 2050 (Mix95). We use the industry-sector simulation model FORECAST. The model calculates energy demand and GHG emissions pathways based on assumptions about policy instruments like CO2 prices or investment grants with a high technology detail.Results show that the current policy scenario is not in line with the Green Deal target and is far from reaching climate neutrality by 2050. The Mix95 Scenario achieves ~95 % GHG reduction by 2050. To meet this reduction, various strategies are necessary. A fast and comprehensive switch to electricity and hydrogen is driven by higher CO2 prices and OPEX support. Driven by the electrification of process heating, electricity demand increases significantly to ~1600 TWh by 2050 starting from 1018 TWh in the year 2018. Also, hydrogen sees a rapid uptake to reach 811 TWh by 2050 prioritizing use in steelmaking and chemical feedstocks. CCS and CCU are used to capture the remaining process emission in the cement and lime production resulting in 75 Mio. t CO2 captured in 2050. Effective instruments for circularity and material efficiency reduce the production of energy-intensive goods and thereby the demand for CO2-neutral energy carriers.