Fraunhofer-Institut für System- und Innovationsforschung ISI

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  • Publication
    To charge or not to charge? Using Prospect Theory to model the tradeoffs of electric vehicle users
    ( 2024)
    Pelka, Sabine orcid-logo
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    Bosch, Antonia
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    Chappin, Emile J.L.
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    Liesenhoff, Fabian
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    Kühnbach, Matthias orcid-logo
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    Vries, Laurens J. de
    Electric vehicle (EV) users who aim to become flexibility providers face a tradeoff between staying in control of charging and minimizing their electricity costs. The common practice is to charge immediately after plugging in and use more electricity than necessary. Changing this can increase the EV's flexibility potential and reduce electricity costs. Our extended electricity cost optimization model systematically examines how different changes to this practice influence electricity costs. Based on the Prospect Theory and substantiated by empirical data, it captures EV users' tradeoff between relinquishing control and reducing charging costs. Lowering the need to control charging results in disproportionally large savings in electricity costs. This finding incentivizes EV-users to relinquish even more control of charging. We analyzed changes to two charging settings that express the need for control. We found that changing only one setting offsets the other and reduces its positive effect on cost savings. Behavioral aspects, such as rebound effects and inertia that are widely documented in the literature, support this finding and underline the fit of our model extension to capture different charging behaviors. Our findings suggest that service providers should convince EV-users to relinquish control of both settings.
  • Publication
    Implications of hydrogen import prices for the German energy system in a model-comparison experiment
    ( 2024)
    Schmitz, Richard
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    Brandes, Julian
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    Nolte, Hannah
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    Kost, Christoph
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    Lux, Benjamin orcid-logo
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    Haendel, Michael
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    Held, Anne
    With its ability to store and transport energy without releasing greenhouse gases, hydrogen is considered an important driver for the decarbonisation of energy systems. As future hydrogen import prices from global markets are subject to large uncertainties, it is unclear what impact different hydrogen and derivative import prices will have on the future German energy system. To answer that research question, this paper explores the impact of three different import price scenarios for hydrogen and its derivatives on the German energy system in a climate-neutral setting for Europe in 2045 using three different energy system models. The analysis shows that the quantities of electricity generated as well as the installed capacities for electricity generation and electrolysis increase as the hydrogen import price rises. However, the resulting differences between the import price scenarios vary across the models. The results further indicate that domestic German (and European) hydrogen production is often cost-efficient.
  • Publication
    European Hydrogen Infrastructure Planning
    ( 2024)
    Alibas, Sirin orcid-logo
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    Ausfelder, Florian
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    Ditz, Daniel
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    Ebner, Michael
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    Engwerth, Veronika
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    Fleiter, Tobias
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    Fragoso García, Joshua
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    Genge, Lucien
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    Greitzer, Maria
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    Haas, Sofia
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    Haendel, Michael
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    Hank, Christoph
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    Hauser, Philipp
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    Heneka, Maximilian
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    Heineken, Wolfram
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    Hildebrand, Jan
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    Isik, Volkan
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    Köppel, Wolfgang
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    Harper, Ryan
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    Jahn, Matthias
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    Klaassen, Bernhard
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    Kneiske, Tanja Manuela
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    Malzkuhn, Sabine
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    Kuzyaka, Berkan
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    Mielich, Tim
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    Lux, Benjamin orcid-logo
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    Maghnam, Ammar
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    Müsgens, Felix
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    Mendler, Friedrich
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    Pleier, Amanda
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    Müller-Kirchenbauer, Joachim
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    Isbert, Anne-Marie
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    Ruprecht, David
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    Sadat-Razavi, Pantea
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    Neuner, Felix
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    Pfluger, Benjamin
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    Mohr, Stephan
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    Ragwitz, Mario
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    Scheffler, Marcel
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    Solomon, Mithran Daniel
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    Voglstätter, Christopher
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    Weißenburger, Bastian orcid-logo
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    Ausfelder, Florian
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    Ragwitz, Mario
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    Förster, My Yen
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    Nolden, Christoph orcid-logo
    The white paper was developed by a selected authorship of the TransHyDE Project System Analysis. The contents of the TransHyDE publications are produced in the project independently of the Federal Ministry of Education and Research.
  • Publication
    Fortschrittsbericht zur Digitalisierung des Energiesystems
    (Fraunhofer CINES, 2024)
    Bergsträßer, Jonathan orcid-logo
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    Berkhout, Volker
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    Klaiber, Stefan
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    Klobasa, Marian orcid-logo
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    Kohrs, Robert
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    Linnartz, Philipp
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    Naumann, Steffi
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    Nicolai, Steffen
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    Schmidt, Dietrich
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    Welisch, Marijke
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    Wende-von Berg, Sebastian
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    Wickert, Manuel
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    Wille-Haußmann, Bernhard
    Die Digitalisierung ist ein hochgradig relevanter Schlüsselprozess für die Energiesystemtransformation - Details dazu hat der Fraunhofer Exzellenzcluster CINES im Jahr 2022 erforscht und in 14 Thesen zusammengefasst. In 2023 wurden in Zusammenarbeit mit Praxispartner:innen aus der Energiewirtschaft politische und regulatorischen Änderungen in der digitalen Energiewirtschaft analysiert und ausgewertet. Der Fortschrittsbericht zeigt die Fortschritte der Digitalisierung auf und erörtert Handlungsbedarfe und Weiterentwicklungspotenziale. Wichtige Erkenntnisse sind: Positive Fortschritte gibt es u.a. durch gesetzliche und regulatorische Neuerungen wie beispielsweise beim §14a EnWG oder dem Gesetz zum Neustart der Digitalisierung der Energiewende (GNDEW). Es mangelt an einem integrativen Zielbild - ein solches kann für mehr Klarheit und Orientierung bei der Digitalisierung des Energiesystems in Deutschland und Europa sorgen. Um Lücken, Handlungsbedarfe und positiven Fortschritt besser zu erkennen, erfordert es ein gemeinsames Verständnis für die Orientierung und Ausrichtung auf die Digitalisierung. Dafür ist es unter anderem notwendig ein handlungsanleitendes Zukunftsbild zu schaffen, die kommunikative Übersetzung und die Verständlichkeit von regulatorischen Änderungen zu verbessern, Kompetenzen für technologische Lösungen, bspw. für notwendige Cyberresilienz und kritischen Infrastrukturen, aufzubauen und Investitionen zu tätigen, um mehr finanzielle Mittel für die Digitalisierung der Energiesystemtransformation zur Verfügung zu haben.
  • Publication
    Assessing the conditions for economic viability of dynamic electricity retail tariffs for households
    ( 2024)
    Stute, Judith orcid-logo
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    Pelka, Sabine orcid-logo
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    Kühnbach, Matthias orcid-logo
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    Klobasa, Marian orcid-logo
    The success of the energy transition relies on effectively utilizing flexibility in the power system. Dynamic tariffs are a highly discussed and promising innovation for incentivizing the use of residential flexibility. However, their full potential can only be realized if households achieve significant benefits. This paper specifically addresses this topic. We examine the leverage of household flexibility and the financial benefits of using dynamic tariffs, considering household heterogeneity, the costs of home energy management systems and smart meters, the impact of higher electricity prices and price spreads and the differences between types of prosumers. To comprehensively address this topic, we use the EVaTar-building model, a simulation framework that includes embedded optimization designed to simulate household electricity consumption patterns under the influence of a home energy management system or in response to dynamic tariffs. The study's main finding is that households can achieve significant cost savings and increase flexibility utilization by using a home energy management system and dynamic electricity tariffs, provided that electricity prices and price spreads reach higher levels. When comparing price levels in a low and high electricity price scenario, with an increase of the average electricity price by 15.2 €ct/kWh (67% higher than the average for the year 2019) and an increase of the price spread by 8.9 €ct/kWh (494% higher), the percentage of households achieving cost savings increases from 3.9% to 62.5%. Households with both an electric vehicle and a heat pump observed the highest cost benefits. Sufficiently high price incentives or sufficiently low costs for home energy management systems and metering point operation are required to enable households to mitigate rising electricity costs and ensure residential flexibility for the energy system through electric vehicles and heat pumps.
  • Publication
    Ukrainian Hydrogen Export Potential: Opportunities and Challenges in the Light of the Ongoing War
    (Fraunhofer ISI, 2023)
    Sukurova, Natalia
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    Wietschel, Martin
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    Fragoso García, Joshua
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    Müller, Viktor Paul orcid-logo
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    Franke, Katja
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    Kantel, Anne
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    Graf, Marieke Emilie Anna orcid-logo
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    Jalbout, Eddy
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    Pieton, Natalia orcid-logo
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    Abdel-Khalek, Hazem
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    Bergup, Emily
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    Weise, Friedrich
    The purpose of the working paper is to study the hydrogen export potential of Ukraine, including the opportunities and challenges in light of the ongoing war, based on the analyses of national and international sources as well as the modeling and calculations conducted within the HYPAT project. The carried-out analysis of the current trends and developments of the hydrogen economy in Ukraine shows that de-spite the ongoing war, the EU remains interested in Ukraine as a potential future hy-drogen supplier. Techno-economic assessment reveals the following: green steel could become an important export product in the future, generating additional reve-nues in the country; Ukraine has a well-established infrastructure for exporting hydro-gen and Power-to-X products to Western Europe via pipelines and seaports, but the repurposing of this infrastructure needs to be further investigated; important energy infrastructures and land for potential renewable energy deployment are currently oc-cupied by the Russian military. It is determined that the war's uncertain duration in-creases the risks of investing in developing the large RE potential in Ukraine so, low-cost RE might only be sufficient to cover domestic demand. The following opportuni-ties and obstacles are highlighted: the development of a hydrogen economy can bring socio-political advantages, but the large-scale hydrogen production in Ukraine might be limited due to water scarcity and competitive water use for the agricultural sector and could imply higher energy costs for households.
  • Publication
    Schlussbericht zum Projekt "Ressourcenbedarf für die Energiewende: Interdisziplinäre Bewertung von Szenarien für die Bereitstellung von Strom und Wärme"
    (Fraunhofer ISI, 2023)
    Tercero Espinoza, Luis Alberto orcid-logo
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    Loibl, Antonia orcid-logo
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    Gervais, Estelle orcid-logo
    The InteRessE project aimed to conduct an interdisciplinary assessment of the resource requirements for the energy transition in Germany. Different scenarios were examined with regard to their resource requirements up to 2050 and their economic, ecological and social opportunities and risks. The assessment was carried out considering technologies and components for the provision, transmission and storage of electricity and heat including the building sector and for the reduction of energy demand in the building sector. The core results from the work at Fraunhofer were: - a broad and detailed consideration of the raw material requirements for the technologies of the energy transition, incl. anticipated developments in the area of efficiency and material substitution measures until 2050 - construction of a systematic database of current and future raw material requirements by technology and raw material - design and implementation of a model that calculates raw material requirements, linked environmental impacts and recycling potentials of transformation pathways of the German energy system, enabling detailed analyses from different perspectives. The modelling results complement those of the energy system analysis by including the upstream chains of the necessary technologies in terms of their raw material requirements and associated environmental impacts. This makes shifts in emissions abroad become visible and quantified. However, the share of raw material requirements and environmental impacts for the import of CO2-neutral energy sources is not included. Overall, the scenario with far-reaching energy-saving and renovation measures shows the lowest demand for raw materials and the lowest dependence on third countries.
  • Publication
    Export Potentials of Green Hydrogen - Methodology for a Techno-Economic Assessment
    (Fraunhofer ISI, 2023)
    Pieton, Natalia orcid-logo
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    Abdel-Khalek, Hazem
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    Graf, Marieke Emilie Anna orcid-logo
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    Drechsler, Björn
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    Lenivova, Veronika orcid-logo
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    Nolden, Christoph orcid-logo
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    Bergup, Emily Felicitas
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    Sinha, Mohammad
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    Fragoso García, Joshua
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    Franke, Katja
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    Kleinschmitt, Christoph
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    Müller, Viktor Paul orcid-logo
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    Wietschel, Martin
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    Holst, Marius
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    Weise, Friedrich
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    Voglstätter, Christopher
    This working paper describes the quantitative and model-based methodology used in HYPAT to assess hydrogen and Power-to-X (PtX) export potentials in the countries Morocco, Ukraine, Namibia, Turkey, United Arab Emirates, Kenya, Chile, Canada, Brazil, and New Zealand. The results of the techno-economic assessment are further used as a basis for a global hydrogen and PtX atlas, and as an indication of the price development of hydrogen and PtX.
  • Publication
    Vor-Ort-Systeme als flexibler Baustein im Energiesystem
    ( 2023-01)
    Flemming, Sebastian
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    Bender, Tom orcid-logo
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    Surmann, Arne
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    Pelka, Sabine orcid-logo
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    Martin, Arne
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    Kühnbach, Matthias orcid-logo
    Im Rahmen der Kurzstudie werden verschiedene Szenarien für den Einsatz von Flexibilitätsoptionen in Verbindung mit unterschiedlichen Ansätzen zur Quartiersbetriebsführung am Beispiel eines konkreten Wohnquartiers untersucht und ausgewertet. Jedes der Szenarien verfolgt die Zielstellung der Steigerung des lokalen EE-Eigenverbrauchs und -versorgung im Quartier. Die Szenarienunterschiede resultieren aus der Frage, welche Flexibilitätsoptionen (Elektromobilität, Wärmepumpen, Energiespeicher) genutzt und wann sie zeitlich in welcher Ausprägung zum Einsatz kommen. Im Rahmen einer KPI-gestützten Auswertung erfolgt zusätzlich die Betrachtung, wie das Quartier für das vorgelagerte Energiesystem in Erscheinung tritt. Die Studie fokussiert sich hierbei auf die technische Quantifizierung der Möglichkeiten zur Nutzung von energetischen Flexibilitätspotenzialen und die aus dem Betrieb resultierenden Auswirkungen für das Quartier und auf das vorgelagerte Energiesystem. Darüber hinaus erfolgt eine sozialwissenschaftliche Betrachtung hinsichtlich der Akzeptanzsteigerung im Quartier.