Fraunhofer-Institut für System- und Innovationsforschung ISI

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  • Publication
    To charge or not to charge? Using Prospect Theory to model the tradeoffs of electric vehicle users
    ( 2024)
    Pelka, Sabine orcid-logo
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    Bosch, Antonia
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    Chappin, Emile J.L.
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    Liesenhoff, Fabian
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    Kühnbach, Matthias orcid-logo
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    Vries, Laurens J. de
    Electric vehicle (EV) users who aim to become flexibility providers face a tradeoff between staying in control of charging and minimizing their electricity costs. The common practice is to charge immediately after plugging in and use more electricity than necessary. Changing this can increase the EV's flexibility potential and reduce electricity costs. Our extended electricity cost optimization model systematically examines how different changes to this practice influence electricity costs. Based on the Prospect Theory and substantiated by empirical data, it captures EV users' tradeoff between relinquishing control and reducing charging costs. Lowering the need to control charging results in disproportionally large savings in electricity costs. This finding incentivizes EV-users to relinquish even more control of charging. We analyzed changes to two charging settings that express the need for control. We found that changing only one setting offsets the other and reduces its positive effect on cost savings. Behavioral aspects, such as rebound effects and inertia that are widely documented in the literature, support this finding and underline the fit of our model extension to capture different charging behaviors. Our findings suggest that service providers should convince EV-users to relinquish control of both settings.
  • Publication
    Implications of hydrogen import prices for the German energy system in a model-comparison experiment
    ( 2024)
    Schmitz, Richard
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    Brandes, Julian
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    Nolte, Hannah
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    Kost, Christoph
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    Lux, Benjamin orcid-logo
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    Haendel, Michael
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    Held, Anne
    With its ability to store and transport energy without releasing greenhouse gases, hydrogen is considered an important driver for the decarbonisation of energy systems. As future hydrogen import prices from global markets are subject to large uncertainties, it is unclear what impact different hydrogen and derivative import prices will have on the future German energy system. To answer that research question, this paper explores the impact of three different import price scenarios for hydrogen and its derivatives on the German energy system in a climate-neutral setting for Europe in 2045 using three different energy system models. The analysis shows that the quantities of electricity generated as well as the installed capacities for electricity generation and electrolysis increase as the hydrogen import price rises. However, the resulting differences between the import price scenarios vary across the models. The results further indicate that domestic German (and European) hydrogen production is often cost-efficient.
  • Publication
    Assessing the conditions for economic viability of dynamic electricity retail tariffs for households
    ( 2024)
    Stute, Judith orcid-logo
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    Pelka, Sabine orcid-logo
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    Kühnbach, Matthias orcid-logo
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    Klobasa, Marian orcid-logo
    The success of the energy transition relies on effectively utilizing flexibility in the power system. Dynamic tariffs are a highly discussed and promising innovation for incentivizing the use of residential flexibility. However, their full potential can only be realized if households achieve significant benefits. This paper specifically addresses this topic. We examine the leverage of household flexibility and the financial benefits of using dynamic tariffs, considering household heterogeneity, the costs of home energy management systems and smart meters, the impact of higher electricity prices and price spreads and the differences between types of prosumers. To comprehensively address this topic, we use the EVaTar-building model, a simulation framework that includes embedded optimization designed to simulate household electricity consumption patterns under the influence of a home energy management system or in response to dynamic tariffs. The study's main finding is that households can achieve significant cost savings and increase flexibility utilization by using a home energy management system and dynamic electricity tariffs, provided that electricity prices and price spreads reach higher levels. When comparing price levels in a low and high electricity price scenario, with an increase of the average electricity price by 15.2 €ct/kWh (67% higher than the average for the year 2019) and an increase of the price spread by 8.9 €ct/kWh (494% higher), the percentage of households achieving cost savings increases from 3.9% to 62.5%. Households with both an electric vehicle and a heat pump observed the highest cost benefits. Sufficiently high price incentives or sufficiently low costs for home energy management systems and metering point operation are required to enable households to mitigate rising electricity costs and ensure residential flexibility for the energy system through electric vehicles and heat pumps.
  • Publication
    Metastudie Wasserstoff. Was lässt sich aus Energiesystemstudien schlussfolgern?
    ( 2022)
    Wietschel, Martin
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    Hebling, Christopher
    Im Auftrag des Nationalen Wasserstoffrats haben die drei Fraunhofer-Institute ISI, ISE und IEG in einer Metastudie die potentielle Nachfrage nach Wasserstoff sowie Wasserstoffderivaten bis 2050 analysiert. Hierzu wurden aktuelle Systemstudien für die EU und für Deutschland mit Szenarien für einen ambitionierten Klimaschutz analysiert. Die ausgewerteten Studien haben eine (stark techno-ökonomische) Systemsicht aus einer Energieperspektive heraus. Nicht alle Aspekte eines Transformationspfades (z. B. heimische Arbeitsplätze und Wertschöpfung, bestehende Regulierung, beschlossene Fördermaßnahmen etc.) werden dabei berücksichtigt. Diese Studien arbeiten mit Szenarien, die keine Vorhersagen darstellen, sondern die möglichen Entwicklungen und techno-ökonomische Pfade unter verschiedenen Annahmen abbilden.
  • Publication
    Integrating methods and empirical findings from social and behavioural sciences into energy system models - motivation and possible approaches
    ( 2020)
    Senkpiel, Charlotte
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    Dobbins, Audrey
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    Kockel, Christina
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    Steinbach, Jan
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    Fahl, Ulrich
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    Wille, Farina
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    Globisch, Joachim
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    Wassermann, Sandra
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    Droste-Franke, Bert
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    Hauser, Wolfgang
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    Hofer, Claudia
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    Nolting, Lars
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    Bernath, Christiane orcid-logo
    The transformation of the energy system is a highly complex process involving many dimensions. Energy system models help to understand the process and to define either target systems or policy measures. Insights derived from the social sciences are not sufficiently represented in energy system models, but address crucial aspects of the transformation process. It is, therefore, necessary to develop approaches to integrate results from social science studies into energy system models. Hence, as a result of an interdisciplinary discourse among energy system modellers, social scientists, psychologists, economists and political scientists, this article explains which aspects should be considered in the models, how the respective results can be collected and which aspects of integration into energy system models are conceivable to provide an overview for other modellers. As a result of the discourse, five facets are examined: Investment behaviour (market acceptance), user behaviour, local acceptance, technology innovation and socio-political acceptance. Finally, an approach is presented that introduces a compound of energy system models (with a focus on the macro and micro-perspective) as well as submodels on technology genesis and socio-political acceptance, which serves to gain a more fundamental knowledge of the transformation process.
  • Publication
    Sektorkopplung - was ist darunter zu verstehen?
    ( 2019)
    Wietschel, Martin
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    Plötz, Patrick orcid-logo
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    Klobasa, Marian orcid-logo
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    Müller-Kirchenbauer, Joachim
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    Kochems, Johannes
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    Hermann, Lisa
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    Grosse, Benjamin
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    Nacken, Lukas
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    Küster, Michael
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    Naumann, David
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    Kost, Christoph
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    Fahl, Ulrich
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    Timmermann, Daniel
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    Albert, Denise
    Sektorkopplung ist in den letzten Jahren in der Energie- und Klimapolitik als neue Begrifflichkeit aufgetaucht und hat aktuell einen sehr hohen Stellenwert in der energiepolitischen Diskussion als eine der zentralen Maßnahmen zur Minderung der Treibhausgase. Eine Auswertung der Literatur zeigt allerdings, dass für den Begriff Sektorkopplung bislang kein einheitliches Begriffsverständnis existiert. Ausgehend von der Analyse, welche Sektoren überhaupt miteinander gekoppelt werden, welche Technologien unter der Sektorkopplung üblicherweise gefasst werden und welche unterschiedlichen Zielsetzungen mit der Sektorkopplung verfolgt werden, wird in dem Artikel eine breiter gefasste Definition erarbeitet. Diese bezieht sowohl die direkte erneuerbare Stromnutzung wie die Umwandlung von Strom in gas- oder flüssige Brenn- und Kraftstoffe ein. Weiterhin wird gezeigt, dass auch eine Beschränkung auf erneuerbaren Strom nicht zielführend sein muss, sondern auch die Nutzung von konventionellem Strom oder anderer erneuerbaren Energiequellen durchaus einen wertvollen Beitrag für eine Sektorkopplung liefern kann. Neben der Kopplung der Umwandlungs- und Nachfragesektoren kann auch die Verknüpfung von nachfrageseitigen Sektoren untereinander über Infrastrukturen zur Sektorkopplung gezählt werden. Um eine Sektorkopplung zu einem Erfolg zu führen, sind der regulatorische Rahmen anzupassen sowie juristische Aspekte, die mit dem Begriffsverständnis verbunden sind, zu klären.
  • Publication
    Opportunities and challenges of high renewable energy deployment and electricity exchange for North Africa and Europe - scenarios for power sector and transmission infrastructure in 2030 and 2050
    ( 2016)
    Boie, Inga
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    Kost, Christoph
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    Bohn, Sven
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    Agsten, Michael
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    Bretschneider, Peter
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    Snigovyi, Oleksandr
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    Pudlik, Martin
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    Ragwitz, Mario
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    Schlegl, Thomas
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    Westermann, Dirk
    Climate change and limited availability of fossil fuel reserves stress both the importance of deploying renewable energy sources (RES) for electricity generation and the need for a stronger integration of regional electricity markets. This analysis focuses on North African (NA) countries, which possess vast resources of renewable energy but whose electricity supply is still largely dependent on fossil fuels. An analysis of cost-optimized deployment scenarios for RES is conducted in five NA countries in 2030 and 2050. Three electricity models are combined to derive results covering trans-regional to sub-national level, including a detailed analysis of grid capacities and future transmission challenges. Further, opportunities for integration of European and NA electricity markets are evaluated. Results confirm that, by 2050, high RES shares - close to 100% - are possible in NA. Wind energy is the dominant technology. Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) plants also play an important role with rising RES shares due to the possibility to store thermal energy. Electricity exports to Europe gain particular importance in the period after 2030. Substantial transmission grid reinforcements on AC-level and the construction of a high voltage DC overlay grid are prerequisites for the forecasted scenarios.
  • Publication
    Smart grid agent: Plug-in electric vehicle
    ( 2014)
    Dallinger, David
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    Link, Jochen
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    Büttner, Markus
    This study describes a method for programming a plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) agent that can be used in power system models and in embedded systems implemented in real PEVs. Implementing the software in real-life applications and in simulation tools enables research with a high degree of detail and practical relevance. Agent-based programming, therefore, is an important tool for investigating the future power system. To demonstrate the PEV agent behavior, an optimization algorithm is presented and two battery aging methods, as well as their effect on vehicle-to-grid operation, are analyzed. Aging costs based on the depth-of-discharge result in shallow cycles and a strong dependency on driving behavior, because the state-of-charge affects the discharging process. In contrast, aging costs based on energy throughput calculations result in deeper cycles and V2G operation, which is less dependent on driving behavior.