Fraunhofer-Institut für System- und Innovationsforschung ISI

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Evaluating Local Explanations for Survey Variable Detection in Scientific Publications

2024 , Zielinski, Andrea , Spolwind, Calvin , Kroll, Henning

Deep learning methods are increasingly integrated into scientific discovery and document understanding applications, helping scientists to get access to high-quality information. In the Social Sciences, this includes identifying sentences that contain survey variables mentions in scientific publication as part of a dataset. (Variable Detection) Existing methods for the task rely on (generative) pre-trained transformer models and have a high performance, however, interpretability and lack of user trust is a major concern. This work investigates the capabilities of gpt3.5-turbo (chatGPT) and various BERT models for identifying survey variables in publications and generating an explanation for their decision. Regarding performance, we find that the BERT-based fine-tund supervised classifier outperforms the large language model (LLM) with an accuracy of 94.43% (versus 67.50% for chatGPT in a zero-shotsetting). We observe that prompting LLMs to provide an explanation along with the prediction increases accuracy. In terms of interpretability, we apply various explainable techniques (i.e., LIME and SHAP) post-hoc to BERT, thus producing local explanations based on feature attributions. These are constrained to supervised models and cannot be applied to generative pretrained LLMs likewise. Faithfulness metrics show that LIME and SciBERT are best suited to reveal the model’s decision-making process. Instead, natural language explanations (NLE) that justify a model’s prediction are generated by chatGPT as self-explanation. We conduct a human evaluation of the generated free-text rationales to assess their quality. For the evaluation setup, three annotators judge explanations for their utility based on the evaluation criteria wellformedness, consistency, factual groundedness and plausibility. Our experiments were run on an open-access dataset, hence allowing full reproducibility.

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How to roadmap? Basics and insights from German industry

2023-05-23 , Kirstgen, Anna , Aydemir, Ali

Dies sind die Präsentationsfolien eines Vortrags, der auf der Konferenz "Energy Future in Industry 2023" gehalten wurde, die vom 9. bis 11. Mai 2023 in Götheburg stattfand. Im ersten Teil des Vortrags wurden Grundlagen des Roadmapping vorgestellt. Im zweiten Teil wurde das Thema anhand eines Beispiels veranschaulicht. Hierzu wurden Erfahrungen aus einem Projekt für das Umweltbundesamt herangezogen, bei dem es um die Erstellung von Eckpunkten für eine Roadmap zur Dekarbonisierung der Stahlindustrie ging.

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Waste heat as a driver for greenfield heat networks? Planning trade-offs illustrated using a case study for Zelzate, Belgium

2023 , Pollmann, Aljoscha , Aydemir, Ali , Fritz, Markus

Many studies see district heating (DH) as an important lever to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the building sector. Here, excess heat can drive the development of new heating networks in greenfield developments. However, determining the optimal size of a new network presents a question: should it be constructed to fully utilize waste heat, maximize project NPV, or connect as many buildings as possible? Consequently, tradeoffs may arise during planning. For instance, the size of a network has implications on investments and heat losses due to increased piping. In short, smaller networks result in lower heat losses and investments, while larger networks benefit more households. We investigate this trade-off in a Belgian municipality that considers options for building a new DH network utilizing excess heat from a nearby steel mill. We investigate the mentioned trade-off using THERMOS, a tool to design and simulate DH networks. To achieve this goal, we create three network designs that connect a different number of buildings to the DH network to be built in Zelzate (Belgium), each with unrefurbished or refurbished demand - resulting in six technical scenarios. Using indicators such as heat distribution costs and excess heat share in the DH network, we compare and evaluate the results of these simulations. 110 Our results indicate that the designs analyzed have their specific advantages and disadvantages. For example, heat distribution costs are significantly lower for designs where fewer buildings are connected than for designs where more buildings are connected. For example, the heat distribution costs for the unrefurbished scenario, where 30% of the demand is connected, are about 4.3 ct/kWh; for the design where 100% is connected, they are about 6.9 ct/kWh. In summary, our case study indicates that the aforementioned trade-off in greenfield planning is indeed relevant. For example, in the case study analysed, project developers tend to choose planning approaches where fewer buildings are connected, although larger networks could also be beneficial in the future. Therefore, further research is needed to find out which planning heuristics, technologies and/or strategies could help to deal with such trade-offs.

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The success factors of circular economy platforms

2023 , Duwe, Daniel , Zuquetto, Rovian Dill , Pasqualotto, Carina

Circular economy platforms have been created with the purpose of building networks of ac-tors engaging in symbiosis by exchanging (waste) resources. However, platforms of this kind have not seen large-scale success yet and companies are hesitant to participate in them. For this research, a literature analysis as well as interviews with actors involved in circular econo-my platforms in Colombia, Brazil, South Africa and Germany were conducted to identify the individual and mutual economic, ecological and social benefits they can gain from these plat-forms along the triple bottom line. We also explored blocking points such as entry-barriers which platforms should avoid as well as mechanisms and incentives which platforms should implement to attract more participants. The results show that the participants can gain econom-ic advantages, e.g. improving their resource access and their resource acquisition, processing or disposal costs. These economic benefits are often valued higher by the participants than the environmental and social benefits which come alongside. Platform incentives for participation can be the provision of room for identifying synergies or additional, sometimes even free ser-vices. Entry-barriers such as access costs or data handling issues can be avoided through free participation or trial periods and guarantees of data privacy and security.

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Divergent or convergent? Acceptance of CCUS at regional and national levels

2024 , Alsheimer, Sven , Dütschke, Elisabeth

Carbon capture, utilisation and storage (CCUS) is seen by the IPCC and many governments as an important contribution to mitigating climate change, especially for hard-to-abate industries such as cement and waste-to-energy. Therefore, political strategies are being developed stating ambitious targets for CCUS implementation. However, the technology is (still) largely unfamiliar to the broad public in Europe and has been eyed critically by the public in the past. This study assesses the public perceptions towards CCUS and the level of support for its implementation. It contrasts acceptance at the regional level with acceptance at the national level and explores their interrelationship. The empirical basis of this study is formed by representative household surveys in two countries, namely Greece and Italy (overall n=3042). The findings indicate that acceptance levels are quite high, with the lowest levels of acceptance in the regional sample in Greece and comparable levels of acceptance in the other three samples. The findings further provide some indication that individuals' prior personal beliefs, their personal familiarity with CCUS and the study areas, their specific attitudes towards a potential implementation of CCUS, and their socio-economic characteristics are influential for their acceptance of implementing the technology at the local level. In particular, attitudes towards the implementation process and its expected local impacts appear to be most relevant for individuals' acceptance evaluations. Our findings underscore the importance of properly engaging the public at national and regional levels, taking into account their preferences and expectations, while also considering the regional and wider context and how it intersects with public perceptions.

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Sustainability pathways in a future European battery ecosystem

2023 , Thielmann, Axel , Neef, Christoph , Hettesheimer, Tim , Schmaltz, Thomas , Stephan, Annegret , Weymann, Lukas , Wicke, Tim , Stephan, Maximilian , Krauß, Konstantin

Sustainability in the battery industry has many facets, ranging from minimizing the environmental impacts associated with material and battery production and the treatment and recycling of batteries after their end of life to environmental, social and governance (ESG) aspects in the mining of raw materials. However, in terms of Europe as a location, sustainability also means building an ecosystem that enables stability and growth along the entire battery value chain. For example, through access to critical raw materials or a high degree of sovereignty in technology development and industrial implementation. Against the background of geopolitical developments and the dominance of Asian players, these aspects seem to have become more important than ever. The EU, but also the European industry from the chemical to the automotive sector, has been trying for several years to find answers to the questions related to the aspects mentioned. For example, there is currently a strong localization of production plants in Europe, which aim to cover the large battery demand of the automotive industry. At the same time, raw material deposits in Europe are also being increasingly examined for exploitation opportunities. All this is flanked by a comprehensive new EU battery regulation that has now come into force and initiatives like the critical raw materials act. The presentation deals with political, economic but also technological approaches along the European battery value chain, which can increase sustainability. Based on the predicted battery demand in Europe , the efforts to extract and process European lithium reserves will be quantified as an example and compared to the demand for raw materials. Likewise, the extent to which battery recycling that complies with the new EU regulation can have a contribution to raw material coverage is discussed. In a similar approach, the production capacity of the European battery industry itself is predicted and technological approaches to reduce the environmental impact of production processes are presented and evaluated. Also, the potential of alternative battery technologies to relax the dependencies on the Li-Ion battery technology, critical raw materials, or battery cell suppliers is discussed within a holistic sustainability approach. The result shows a picture of still strong dependence on a non-European raw material industry and on non-European players. At the same time, however, the European industry is growing, particularly in the area of battery cell production, which may increase the chances of implementing more sustainable solutions.

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Environmental sustainability and innovations: Achievements and direction of future research

2023 , Walz, Rainer

This paper discusses what we know after 20 years of research on environmental sustainability and innovations, and what further room for improvement emerges to improve our knowledge. This two-step approach is performed for three key topics of Globelics research on environmental sustainability and innovations: first, the development of sustainability capabilities in countries of the South; second, methodological issues on the heuristics to be used to analyse case studies; third, the specific role of the state to achieve the envisaged changes. Key results are that the South has been increasing its capabilities from “catch-up” towards leapfrogging. New data sources and new forms of innovation will be important new topics. The widely used heuristics of technological innovations systems and MLP have to be enlarged and embedded within other subsystems to analyse sustainability transformations. Fostering environmental sustainability innovations require additional governmental activities compared to “normal” innovation systems. The roles of the state will be further increased and become more differentiated with the move from fostering technical innovations towards transformation of systems. In addition, the focus on renewable energy and climate mitigation will broaden towards climate adaptation and the interplay of climate technologies and with circular economy. Increasingly, different perspectives and research approaches need to be combined and integrated. This requires true interdisciplinary research and reflection processes about the normative assumptions.

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The Potential of Generative AI tools such as ChatGPT for Sustainable Business Model Innovation

2024 , Duwe, Daniel , Weissenberger-Eibl, Marion A.

Megatrends such as sustainability force companies to adjust their business models or even to create entirely new ones. However, many companies struggle to do so be-cause of multiple reasons such as lacking creativity and capacity. The advent of Generative AI tools such as ChatGPT can help to overcome this challenge. In this paper, it was analyzed if and how Generative AI can be used to develop innovative business models and whether the results are of the same quality as compared to the ones from human origin.

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H2 in Germany - current discussions with relevance to import strategies

2023 , Walz, Rainer

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Lessons from municipal networks for mutual support: Empowering municipalities to lead the transition towards a low-carbon society

2023 , Alsheimer, Sven , Burghard, Uta , Fritz, Markus

Municipalities play a crucial role in the transition to a low-carbon society. The EU introduced the instrument of Sustainable Energy (and Climate) Action Plans (SE(C)APs) to foster the transition process at local level, but many municipalities have only just started the process of setting up such a plan and thus have little experience with implementation of the defined measures. To empower municipalities and to fully utilise their potential in the transition to a low-carbon society, the PATH2LC project brings together European municipalities on a regional and international level. The core of the project is the ‘Learning Municipality Network’ (LMN) approach, which promotes close cooperation between municipalities through regular, organised, and moderated meetings that include expert input and peer-to-peer learning. The approach is being implemented in municipalities in five established networks in five countries (France, Greece, Italy, the Netherlands and Portugal). The aim of this paper is to evaluate the process and outcomes of the LMN approach and provide recommendations for its broader diffusion. We evaluated the effectiveness of the LMN approach in the five networks using two types of monitoring: socio-scientific and technical. The socio-scientific monitoring was aimed at determining how the participating municipalities and the local partners moderating the network perceived the LMN approach. We conducted five guideline-based online-interviews with the network moderators and another 20 interviews with stakeholders from the municipalities who were actively involved in the network process. The technical monitoring was aimed at assessing the progress of each network in terms of the implementation status of measures defined in the SE(C)APs. This involved an annual survey of representatives from each municipality on the implementation status of energy efficiency measures. Our results indicate that the LMN approach implemented in the five networks has facilitated the municipalities’ pursuit of emission reduction targets. It has contributed to the implementation of energy efficiency and sustainability measures; most of the measures implemented belong to the category of energy efficiency or renewable energy. In particular, measures in the area of efficiency, renewables and heating and cooling have helped to generate large energy savings for the municipalities concerned. Moving forward, any potential future implementation of an organised networking approach for municipal networks requires careful planning and consideration of the unique characteristics and needs of the participating municipalities to overcome potential barriers. Furthermore, enhancing networking opportunities between municipalities across Europe could further support peer-to-peer learning and best practice sharing, and foster greater success in transitioning towards a low-carbon society.

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